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Melitica ago

One in ten trillion what? Chances that there are two people with the same disorder?

That's not how statistics work. Every birth has a one in 10,000 chance. Soros and Madeline are simply two births. There is no multiplication.

UglyTruth ago

sonatine is almost correct (10^4)^3 = 10^12 = 1 000 000 000 000 so 1 in a trillion. Two births would be (10^4)^2 = 10^8 = 1 00 000 000 -> 1 in 100 million.

The probability increases when you have a set of people (or cases) that you can pick from when you are looking for the disorder.

Air_Gate ago

Assuming 200 million Americans. That's 100 people every million or 20 000 people. Doesn't sound too astronomical. So what are the odds of 3 people having it being acquainted?

UglyTruth ago

Since it's a genetic defect the odds are better than average that someone with colobama will know a relative of theirs who has it. Then there's the problem that some people are more gregarious than others, so that affects the chance that they know someone who has it. TL:DR; Don't know, too difficult.