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Melitica ago

One in ten trillion what? Chances that there are two people with the same disorder?

That's not how statistics work. Every birth has a one in 10,000 chance. Soros and Madeline are simply two births. There is no multiplication.

urso ago

There is multiplication if the 3 person are put together by an unrelated factor, then you find this common characteristic

Melitica ago

What Three people? Madeline, soros and...?

AlefantisIsAFuckboi ago

Caris James, the girl from Alefantis' instgram

justanotherone ago

It's more than 3 people. There is no debate about it, these people ARE interested in Coloboma, Satanist say so!

Melitica ago

Doesn't have it.

UglyTruth ago

sonatine is almost correct (10^4)^3 = 10^12 = 1 000 000 000 000 so 1 in a trillion. Two births would be (10^4)^2 = 10^8 = 1 00 000 000 -> 1 in 100 million.

The probability increases when you have a set of people (or cases) that you can pick from when you are looking for the disorder.

Melitica ago

First the OP said one in a trillion compounded 3 times. Second, there aren't three people so I don't know where the 3 came from. Third, that's only true if you take two random people and ask what the chances are that both have this rare disorder.

When you start with the knowledge that one already has it, the outside chance is 1 in 10000. But that wasn't the methodology. It was a disease looking for a person to land on.

Knowing that Madeline has this weird thing and looking for someone who has it too. It is an odd coincidence that soros's eye looks like the same disease...which is not confirmed....but just odd and not an indication that Soros's is the paternal gene donor...which was the implication.

Air_Gate ago

Assuming 200 million Americans. That's 100 people every million or 20 000 people. Doesn't sound too astronomical. So what are the odds of 3 people having it being acquainted?

UglyTruth ago

Since it's a genetic defect the odds are better than average that someone with colobama will know a relative of theirs who has it. Then there's the problem that some people are more gregarious than others, so that affects the chance that they know someone who has it. TL:DR; Don't know, too difficult.