I didn’t like the JH article which I thought was misleading . Cant find the original study or presentation from her. But from what I can tell I dont agree with her interpretation.
Deaths are way up. Briand pointsnout that part of the increase is a long term trend of ~2% annual increase in deaths due to population increase. But the actual increase in total deaths so far in 2020 is way larger than the expected 2% and it roughly matches number of reported covid deaths. So there is no basis for saying Covid hasn’t caused excess deaths. Deaths are well over 10 percent up from normal, maybe 15%.
The article states that elderly death rate hasn’t changed but that is only true in proportion to other age groups. In other words, people in their eighties are still about 50% of all deaths but almost all age groups have seen deaths increase 10 to 15 percent so it is terribly misleading. That is not an honest use of the term elderly death rate, even if it is technically a “rate” related to elderly deaths.
I used total data from the weeks of 3/14 to 9/26. 3/14 is roughly the start of the death spike. CDC states that weekly data from 8 weeks ago is 75% updated or more, so more recent data is too incomplete to use.
During that period 1,828,350 people died in the US. The previous 3 year average of that same period is about 1,524,444. According to Briand there is a trend of an annual increase of 2% so I built that in to a new expected number for the period by increasing the average by 4% (a 3 year average would be about 4% under since each of those years will be around 2, 4 and 6 percent low, respectively). That new expected number is 1,585,421. According to Briand’s own logic the death toll is 15.32% higher than it should be.
We will have a nasty surge in the north over the next 4 months, so I believe that number will get higher by the time we have a full year of data.
My beliefs have nothing to do with it. As a chinaman you should appreciate the math.
I'm getting so used to official lies and cover ups a mean anti official bias triggers automatically that is going to be hard to combat whenever something legitimate comes from an official source.
Im with you. I don’t trust. I dig in to numbers when available. Ive read a lot of boring scientific studies to understand whether HCQ works or if this bug was engineered. I don’t fucking trust these cunts. But I am convinced this is a bad virus for old people and the deaths are mostly real. Its definitely not your typical flu.
I mean they are always euthanizing old people in this country every day. I fended the vultures off my mother for 4 years. They wanted to starve her and drug her until she was dead. But this bug gets rid of alot of people that would be viable for another 10 years.
This virus isn’t really spreading in africa and the tropics very well because it just doesn’t like the heat and humidity and it certainly doesn’t like UV radiation. The spread is very slow even in a place like LA and its just fucking non-existent in equatorial africa. Not to mention those places dont have a lot of people traveling through them. A lot of people go through New York.
When conditions are right— high pop. density, cold weather, less than 12 hrs sunlight, dry air, old people, high volume of travellers— boom, instant covid explosion.
I agree. The sunbelt will be a slow burn that is largely year round. I was shocked to see the NY numbers drop to essentially zero by mid may. But that is following seasonal flu behavior.
This is what communists do when you let them run your life. This isn’t science. The best protection against this is prophylaxis antivirals. If they distributed it in “hotspots” it would largely solve the problem.
They are lying or murdering. There is no reason the US should have any higher rate than anywhere else unless it's because we aren't yet a totalitarian communist or fascist dictatorship, as the rouse suggests.
Lied about everything else why not lie about total number of deaths?
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Helena73 ago
The archived:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Another chart from another article about this study from the same analyst Genevieve Briand, an econometrist.
https://www.aier.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screen-Shot-2020-11-26-at-11.22.32-AM.png
I didn’t like the JH article which I thought was misleading . Cant find the original study or presentation from her. But from what I can tell I dont agree with her interpretation.
Deaths are way up. Briand pointsnout that part of the increase is a long term trend of ~2% annual increase in deaths due to population increase. But the actual increase in total deaths so far in 2020 is way larger than the expected 2% and it roughly matches number of reported covid deaths. So there is no basis for saying Covid hasn’t caused excess deaths. Deaths are well over 10 percent up from normal, maybe 15%.
The article states that elderly death rate hasn’t changed but that is only true in proportion to other age groups. In other words, people in their eighties are still about 50% of all deaths but almost all age groups have seen deaths increase 10 to 15 percent so it is terribly misleading. That is not an honest use of the term elderly death rate, even if it is technically a “rate” related to elderly deaths.
ChiCom ago
Show source of global deaths up 15%
Helena73 ago
I know you’re trying to be clever but it eludes me, what is 1B extra?
Not global deaths. US deaths.
Here is what I just calcuted based on CDC data from this page, the same data Genvieve Briand is using.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
I used total data from the weeks of 3/14 to 9/26. 3/14 is roughly the start of the death spike. CDC states that weekly data from 8 weeks ago is 75% updated or more, so more recent data is too incomplete to use.
During that period 1,828,350 people died in the US. The previous 3 year average of that same period is about 1,524,444. According to Briand there is a trend of an annual increase of 2% so I built that in to a new expected number for the period by increasing the average by 4% (a 3 year average would be about 4% under since each of those years will be around 2, 4 and 6 percent low, respectively). That new expected number is 1,585,421. According to Briand’s own logic the death toll is 15.32% higher than it should be.
We will have a nasty surge in the north over the next 4 months, so I believe that number will get higher by the time we have a full year of data.
My beliefs have nothing to do with it. As a chinaman you should appreciate the math.
ChiCom ago
I edited my comment.
I'm getting so used to official lies and cover ups a mean anti official bias triggers automatically that is going to be hard to combat whenever something legitimate comes from an official source.
Helena73 ago
Im with you. I don’t trust. I dig in to numbers when available. Ive read a lot of boring scientific studies to understand whether HCQ works or if this bug was engineered. I don’t fucking trust these cunts. But I am convinced this is a bad virus for old people and the deaths are mostly real. Its definitely not your typical flu.
I mean they are always euthanizing old people in this country every day. I fended the vultures off my mother for 4 years. They wanted to starve her and drug her until she was dead. But this bug gets rid of alot of people that would be viable for another 10 years.
This virus isn’t really spreading in africa and the tropics very well because it just doesn’t like the heat and humidity and it certainly doesn’t like UV radiation. The spread is very slow even in a place like LA and its just fucking non-existent in equatorial africa. Not to mention those places dont have a lot of people traveling through them. A lot of people go through New York.
When conditions are right— high pop. density, cold weather, less than 12 hrs sunlight, dry air, old people, high volume of travellers— boom, instant covid explosion.
ChiCom ago
Doesn't stop the media from trying to claim hot humid Florida is exploding when it isn't just to get us to lock down.
Helena73 ago
I agree. The sunbelt will be a slow burn that is largely year round. I was shocked to see the NY numbers drop to essentially zero by mid may. But that is following seasonal flu behavior.
This is what communists do when you let them run your life. This isn’t science. The best protection against this is prophylaxis antivirals. If they distributed it in “hotspots” it would largely solve the problem.
ChiCom ago
They are lying or murdering. There is no reason the US should have any higher rate than anywhere else unless it's because we aren't yet a totalitarian communist or fascist dictatorship, as the rouse suggests.
Lied about everything else why not lie about total number of deaths?