But even thier backpedaling statement doesn't explain the fact that total deaths are on par with previous years. They say the CDC says there are 300k excess deaths... Ok, why don't the numbers reflect that?
Sure. Read the archived article about the ‘study’. The original is not to be found, only an article published in JHU’s student/alumni newsletter which only cited this one completely unreviewed ‘study’ (and graphics) supposedly done so by an obscure economics professor with no apparent affiliation to JHU.
You’re welcome.
Gateway Pundit is a shit propaganda rag. Both Hoft twins are pieces of shit.
Interesting. So we now have: The obscure economics professor does teach at JHU, and made a webinar presentation on November 11. An attending student wrote a synopsis and put it in the student newspaper.
It’s still not a “Johns Hopkins Study”. Thanks for pointing me to more information.
Gateway Pundit is a shit propaganda rag. Both Hoft twins are pieces of shit.
I didn’t like the JH article which I thought was misleading . Cant find the original study or presentation from her. But from what I can tell I dont agree with her interpretation.
Deaths are way up. Briand pointsnout that part of the increase is a long term trend of ~2% annual increase in deaths due to population increase. But the actual increase in total deaths so far in 2020 is way larger than the expected 2% and it roughly matches number of reported covid deaths. So there is no basis for saying Covid hasn’t caused excess deaths. Deaths are well over 10 percent up from normal, maybe 15%.
The article states that elderly death rate hasn’t changed but that is only true in proportion to other age groups. In other words, people in their eighties are still about 50% of all deaths but almost all age groups have seen deaths increase 10 to 15 percent so it is terribly misleading. That is not an honest use of the term elderly death rate, even if it is technically a “rate” related to elderly deaths.
Can you be more specific about which of my numbers you mean? Also realize Im conversing with like 2 or 3 other people on this topic so Im losing track of which data is being discussed.
If you mean the chart I posted in the prev comment, that is Genevieve Briand’s chart showing deaths per week which is only around 60,000.
The cdc tally of total deaths through sept. is going to be artificially low because all the deaths from september and august have not been registered yet. Thats why they call it provisional.
By the end of the year the total deaths all causes number will exceed 3 million. Put money on it. The projection is artificially low, assuming only 54 thousand deaths a week. Every week from september to december will have more than 60,000 deaths.
Well it ain’t my damn chart. But it goes from january 2014 to september 2020 and each mark on the x axis is a month, (every 4th week). The data points are actually for every week though, so most weeks are around 50,000 to 60,000 deaths. I took this from a different article on it, because it was a better chart than the one in the JH newsletter which was even worse.
Maybe deaths are up due to the lockdowns and not the virus. I’m just spitballing here, but it seems that a total or partial lockdown for the better part of a year would cause a lot of deaths due to the increased stress of isolation or the converse, too much time with “loved ones”. How many people died due to untreated illness? Hospitals that have seen dramatic reductions in elective surgery have been claiming every death that’s not a shotgun blast to the head as COVID-19 related. Can you blame them?
I agree suicides probably went up. Its somewhere on the cdc site but I can’t spend more than 5 minutes looking for it. There’s a special icd code for suicides so its got to be in there.
However the number of deaths partially or wholey attributed to covid is 240,000 according to the cdc table which is about 110% of the “excess deaths” we’ve seen over the last 8 months or so. That seems about right. In other words about 90% of the “covid deaths” are people that would still be around if not for covid. And about 10% would have died anyway. Of that 90%, are 1 or 2 percent suicides? Maybe. Are another few percent people who didn’t get chemo cuz of lockdowns? Maybe. But also, reduction in traffic fatalities! Workplace accidents. Etc.
On your chart, look how drastic the fall off is toward the end. I theorize COVID accelerated deaths of those who probably weren't going to make it thru the season anyway. So the deaths spiked faster, but then fell dramatically.
I'd be very interested if you can find a data point showing either your 10-15% additional deaths, or a number including the additional 300k deaths that is continually mentioned.
Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.....
Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).
So the CDC data takes weeks or months to be complete. I can tell you from looking at this table on an occassional basis over the last year (where her data comes from) that the latest 2 or 3 months are always artificially. Other covid stats reports like worldometers. info are much faster at reporting (though less thorough) and they all show an increase in deaths since August in the US. You can even see ( although the rez is shit ) that the last data point on her chart (9/26) is already out of date. It looks like about 52,000 but on the current cdc table it is already up to 58,000 and it will eventually go to 60 or 65,000
I just did a calculation from this data based on the time frame from mid march to late september and I adjusted for the 2% annual increase in deaths that Briand says is a long term trend. The deaths over that period are still 15% higher than the adjusted 3yr average. See this comment to some other fag.
Interesting, thanks for the explanation. So we won't truly know the number until well into 2021.
Still seems strange that with that high of a jump that estimates for the year are close to on track, it should already be skewing way high. Especially if we reached the peak earlier in the year.
I used total data from the weeks of 3/14 to 9/26. 3/14 is roughly the start of the death spike. CDC states that weekly data from 8 weeks ago is 75% updated or more, so more recent data is too incomplete to use.
During that period 1,828,350 people died in the US. The previous 3 year average of that same period is about 1,524,444. According to Briand there is a trend of an annual increase of 2% so I built that in to a new expected number for the period by increasing the average by 4% (a 3 year average would be about 4% under since each of those years will be around 2, 4 and 6 percent low, respectively). That new expected number is 1,585,421. According to Briand’s own logic the death toll is 15.32% higher than it should be.
We will have a nasty surge in the north over the next 4 months, so I believe that number will get higher by the time we have a full year of data.
My beliefs have nothing to do with it. As a chinaman you should appreciate the math.
I'm getting so used to official lies and cover ups a mean anti official bias triggers automatically that is going to be hard to combat whenever something legitimate comes from an official source.
Im with you. I don’t trust. I dig in to numbers when available. Ive read a lot of boring scientific studies to understand whether HCQ works or if this bug was engineered. I don’t fucking trust these cunts. But I am convinced this is a bad virus for old people and the deaths are mostly real. Its definitely not your typical flu.
I mean they are always euthanizing old people in this country every day. I fended the vultures off my mother for 4 years. They wanted to starve her and drug her until she was dead. But this bug gets rid of alot of people that would be viable for another 10 years.
This virus isn’t really spreading in africa and the tropics very well because it just doesn’t like the heat and humidity and it certainly doesn’t like UV radiation. The spread is very slow even in a place like LA and its just fucking non-existent in equatorial africa. Not to mention those places dont have a lot of people traveling through them. A lot of people go through New York.
When conditions are right— high pop. density, cold weather, less than 12 hrs sunlight, dry air, old people, high volume of travellers— boom, instant covid explosion.
I agree. The sunbelt will be a slow burn that is largely year round. I was shocked to see the NY numbers drop to essentially zero by mid may. But that is following seasonal flu behavior.
This is what communists do when you let them run your life. This isn’t science. The best protection against this is prophylaxis antivirals. If they distributed it in “hotspots” it would largely solve the problem.
They are lying or murdering. There is no reason the US should have any higher rate than anywhere else unless it's because we aren't yet a totalitarian communist or fascist dictatorship, as the rouse suggests.
Lied about everything else why not lie about total number of deaths?
Since March, every week has had a higher than normal death count by at least 10% compared with the previous 3 yr average of the same week. Some weeks had a 40% higher than normal death count. You can see this in Briands chart. She doesnt dispute this. She uses these numbers.
Please show me what youre talking about and I will clear up your misapprehension of the fucking math.
The fact that they have to hide these kind of findings is nefarious. These globalist scum deserve the most brutal of endings. Each and every one of them. Makes me think of some of those prison videos from South America where they force pedos to eat their own fingers and drip molten plastic on their skin. They deserve worst and film it all for us to see. Highest ratings ever.
They really do. I didn’t even agree with this article, because it used data in a shifty way, but censoring it just makes everyone suspicious that they are hiding something.
"Dr. Genevieve Briand, the “Assistant Director for MS in Applied Economics,” gave a video lecture in which she examined the deaths due to COVID-19 and deaths overall in the U.S. hosted a friendly conversation on a morose topic on November 11, 2020."
It was a lecture billed as ‘friendly conversation’, not a study, presented by someone in a different field.
If your HS gym teacher quotes half a line from MacBeth and you provide the rest, you don’t get to say you aced your Literature final exam without being a disingenuous twat.
Anyone parroting this as a Johns Hopkins Study is being manipulated.
Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19.
This is the bit I really object to. It is just a lie.
freshoffyourmom ago
What the fuck kind of deadly, contagious virus doesn't kill anybody?
whohat ago
sure hasnt devastated the homeless population
LakotaPride ago
Brother, nobody buying the disappeared story. we all know the Globalists and their puppets are full of crap.
whohat ago
hahaha they took that down quick was surprised to see it ever get posted on their site...sure the author will be looking for another job hahahah
LakotaPride ago
ROFL Brother, truth scares the Hell out of them. LOL
whohat ago
boy it sure did and quick hahah
Fuckinginsanegoat2 ago
They still have a pdf link to the article on the original landing page. For now.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
But even thier backpedaling statement doesn't explain the fact that total deaths are on par with previous years. They say the CDC says there are 300k excess deaths... Ok, why don't the numbers reflect that?
albeit ago
What do you mean? What do you think of the CDC chart/tables here?:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
whohat ago
thanks for the link downloaded it....exactly right the CDC numbers dont jive
CaptThorazine ago
This is all that you need to know about Johns Hopkins.
BoozyB ago
Yep.
Little Mike has gifted JHU in the neighborhood of $3 billion. That's Billion with a B. Give or take a few million.
How this article escaped into the wild is what I would like to know.
whohat ago
agree the connection is in your face and they also hosted Gates think tank on handling Covid 19 pandemic a couple of months prior to the scamdemic
heygeorge ago
That isn’t remotely a Johns Hopkins study.
SpecialtyPizza ago
You’re a moron. Congratulations.
heygeorge ago
For telling the truth? Damn, the Qtards really have infested this shithole.
GoddammitMrNoodle ago
Care to back up that claim?
heygeorge ago
Sure. Read the archived article about the ‘study’. The original is not to be found, only an article published in JHU’s student/alumni newsletter which only cited this one completely unreviewed ‘study’ (and graphics) supposedly done so by an obscure economics professor with no apparent affiliation to JHU.
You’re welcome.
Gateway Pundit is a shit propaganda rag. Both Hoft twins are pieces of shit.
GoddammitMrNoodle ago
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/study-absolutely-no-excess-deaths-from-covid-19new-data-no-excess-deaths-from-covid-19/
heygeorge ago
Interesting. So we now have: The obscure economics professor does teach at JHU, and made a webinar presentation on November 11. An attending student wrote a synopsis and put it in the student newspaper.
It’s still not a “Johns Hopkins Study”. Thanks for pointing me to more information.
Gateway Pundit is a shit propaganda rag. Both Hoft twins are pieces of shit.
Fuckinginsanegoat2 ago
It was a student posted research piece. Ot says it on the top of the page that the newsletter is student published.
BoozyB ago
Yes, but there is an editorial board plus faculty advisors.
Somebody signed off on this to be published.
Jimmycog ago
Getting into the hundreds of billion of dollars, dont upset the hog troughs.
numina18 ago
I posted it on FB, but don't know if they took it off.
Helena73 ago
The archived:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Another chart from another article about this study from the same analyst Genevieve Briand, an econometrist.
https://www.aier.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screen-Shot-2020-11-26-at-11.22.32-AM.png
I didn’t like the JH article which I thought was misleading . Cant find the original study or presentation from her. But from what I can tell I dont agree with her interpretation.
Deaths are way up. Briand pointsnout that part of the increase is a long term trend of ~2% annual increase in deaths due to population increase. But the actual increase in total deaths so far in 2020 is way larger than the expected 2% and it roughly matches number of reported covid deaths. So there is no basis for saying Covid hasn’t caused excess deaths. Deaths are well over 10 percent up from normal, maybe 15%.
The article states that elderly death rate hasn’t changed but that is only true in proportion to other age groups. In other words, people in their eighties are still about 50% of all deaths but almost all age groups have seen deaths increase 10 to 15 percent so it is terribly misleading. That is not an honest use of the term elderly death rate, even if it is technically a “rate” related to elderly deaths.
ChiCom ago
Why are your numbers way off from this?
https://files.catbox.moe/64n7xn.jpg
Helena73 ago
Can you be more specific about which of my numbers you mean? Also realize Im conversing with like 2 or 3 other people on this topic so Im losing track of which data is being discussed.
If you mean the chart I posted in the prev comment, that is Genevieve Briand’s chart showing deaths per week which is only around 60,000.
The cdc tally of total deaths through sept. is going to be artificially low because all the deaths from september and august have not been registered yet. Thats why they call it provisional.
By the end of the year the total deaths all causes number will exceed 3 million. Put money on it. The projection is artificially low, assuming only 54 thousand deaths a week. Every week from september to december will have more than 60,000 deaths.
anon9838378 ago
Here is a link to original article (in video text) and the associated video:
HTTPS:
archive[PERIOD]vn/GuEr6
Could someone reply with a live link? And, how about floating me some points guys?
Tandemlee ago
Deaths are not way up.
MiMx ago
Picture is too small to read x-axis.
Helena73 ago
Well it ain’t my damn chart. But it goes from january 2014 to september 2020 and each mark on the x axis is a month, (every 4th week). The data points are actually for every week though, so most weeks are around 50,000 to 60,000 deaths. I took this from a different article on it, because it was a better chart than the one in the JH newsletter which was even worse.
langoleer ago
Maybe deaths are up due to the lockdowns and not the virus. I’m just spitballing here, but it seems that a total or partial lockdown for the better part of a year would cause a lot of deaths due to the increased stress of isolation or the converse, too much time with “loved ones”. How many people died due to untreated illness? Hospitals that have seen dramatic reductions in elective surgery have been claiming every death that’s not a shotgun blast to the head as COVID-19 related. Can you blame them?
Helena73 ago
I agree suicides probably went up. Its somewhere on the cdc site but I can’t spend more than 5 minutes looking for it. There’s a special icd code for suicides so its got to be in there.
However the number of deaths partially or wholey attributed to covid is 240,000 according to the cdc table which is about 110% of the “excess deaths” we’ve seen over the last 8 months or so. That seems about right. In other words about 90% of the “covid deaths” are people that would still be around if not for covid. And about 10% would have died anyway. Of that 90%, are 1 or 2 percent suicides? Maybe. Are another few percent people who didn’t get chemo cuz of lockdowns? Maybe. But also, reduction in traffic fatalities! Workplace accidents. Etc.
Fuckinginsanegoat2 ago
On your chart, look how drastic the fall off is toward the end. I theorize COVID accelerated deaths of those who probably weren't going to make it thru the season anyway. So the deaths spiked faster, but then fell dramatically.
I'd be very interested if you can find a data point showing either your 10-15% additional deaths, or a number including the additional 300k deaths that is continually mentioned.
Helena73 ago
The data is from here. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The note under this chart states—
So the CDC data takes weeks or months to be complete. I can tell you from looking at this table on an occassional basis over the last year (where her data comes from) that the latest 2 or 3 months are always artificially. Other covid stats reports like worldometers. info are much faster at reporting (though less thorough) and they all show an increase in deaths since August in the US. You can even see ( although the rez is shit ) that the last data point on her chart (9/26) is already out of date. It looks like about 52,000 but on the current cdc table it is already up to 58,000 and it will eventually go to 60 or 65,000
I just did a calculation from this data based on the time frame from mid march to late september and I adjusted for the 2% annual increase in deaths that Briand says is a long term trend. The deaths over that period are still 15% higher than the adjusted 3yr average. See this comment to some other fag.
https://voat.co/v/theawakening/4135945/26573927
Fuckinginsanegoat2 ago
Interesting, thanks for the explanation. So we won't truly know the number until well into 2021.
Still seems strange that with that high of a jump that estimates for the year are close to on track, it should already be skewing way high. Especially if we reached the peak earlier in the year.
ChiCom ago
Show source of global deaths up 15%
MiMx ago
More people die of Tuberculosis each year than even over-inflated Wuhan Flu numbers.
Helena73 ago
I know you’re trying to be clever but it eludes me, what is 1B extra?
Not global deaths. US deaths.
Here is what I just calcuted based on CDC data from this page, the same data Genvieve Briand is using.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
I used total data from the weeks of 3/14 to 9/26. 3/14 is roughly the start of the death spike. CDC states that weekly data from 8 weeks ago is 75% updated or more, so more recent data is too incomplete to use.
During that period 1,828,350 people died in the US. The previous 3 year average of that same period is about 1,524,444. According to Briand there is a trend of an annual increase of 2% so I built that in to a new expected number for the period by increasing the average by 4% (a 3 year average would be about 4% under since each of those years will be around 2, 4 and 6 percent low, respectively). That new expected number is 1,585,421. According to Briand’s own logic the death toll is 15.32% higher than it should be.
We will have a nasty surge in the north over the next 4 months, so I believe that number will get higher by the time we have a full year of data.
My beliefs have nothing to do with it. As a chinaman you should appreciate the math.
ChiCom ago
I edited my comment.
I'm getting so used to official lies and cover ups a mean anti official bias triggers automatically that is going to be hard to combat whenever something legitimate comes from an official source.
Helena73 ago
Im with you. I don’t trust. I dig in to numbers when available. Ive read a lot of boring scientific studies to understand whether HCQ works or if this bug was engineered. I don’t fucking trust these cunts. But I am convinced this is a bad virus for old people and the deaths are mostly real. Its definitely not your typical flu.
I mean they are always euthanizing old people in this country every day. I fended the vultures off my mother for 4 years. They wanted to starve her and drug her until she was dead. But this bug gets rid of alot of people that would be viable for another 10 years.
This virus isn’t really spreading in africa and the tropics very well because it just doesn’t like the heat and humidity and it certainly doesn’t like UV radiation. The spread is very slow even in a place like LA and its just fucking non-existent in equatorial africa. Not to mention those places dont have a lot of people traveling through them. A lot of people go through New York.
When conditions are right— high pop. density, cold weather, less than 12 hrs sunlight, dry air, old people, high volume of travellers— boom, instant covid explosion.
ChiCom ago
Doesn't stop the media from trying to claim hot humid Florida is exploding when it isn't just to get us to lock down.
Helena73 ago
I agree. The sunbelt will be a slow burn that is largely year round. I was shocked to see the NY numbers drop to essentially zero by mid may. But that is following seasonal flu behavior.
This is what communists do when you let them run your life. This isn’t science. The best protection against this is prophylaxis antivirals. If they distributed it in “hotspots” it would largely solve the problem.
ChiCom ago
They are lying or murdering. There is no reason the US should have any higher rate than anywhere else unless it's because we aren't yet a totalitarian communist or fascist dictatorship, as the rouse suggests.
Lied about everything else why not lie about total number of deaths?
verboten ago
Not 15% of the population but 15% more than normal. Russia and Iran had some serious problems, maybe Italy, Spain and France too.
SpecialtyPizza ago
No they are not you moron. The cdc’sown stats have us trending to below last years deaths.
Helena73 ago
Please refer to the png file in my previous comment. That is from Briand’s study.
What cdc data could you possibly be talking about? See the table here?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Since March, every week has had a higher than normal death count by at least 10% compared with the previous 3 yr average of the same week. Some weeks had a 40% higher than normal death count. You can see this in Briands chart. She doesnt dispute this. She uses these numbers.
Please show me what youre talking about and I will clear up your misapprehension of the fucking math.
Tandemlee ago
They pulled it FOR PUBLIC SAFETY
Don't you want to be SAFE?
Do you want grandma to DIE?
Are you a SELFISH NAZI or something!!??
pdpbigbang ago
No, I don't believe in safety. Life is 100% fatal.
Yes, I would preferably want my grandma to pass away peacefully and without much suffering.
Everybody is selfish. Only a few admit it. If we weren't living solipsistic existence, we'd be a hive mind.
Captian_Awesome ago
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Can't stop the signal
whohat ago
thanks
Secret555 ago
The fact that they have to hide these kind of findings is nefarious. These globalist scum deserve the most brutal of endings. Each and every one of them. Makes me think of some of those prison videos from South America where they force pedos to eat their own fingers and drip molten plastic on their skin. They deserve worst and film it all for us to see. Highest ratings ever.
Helena73 ago
They really do. I didn’t even agree with this article, because it used data in a shifty way, but censoring it just makes everyone suspicious that they are hiding something.
Simonbelmont27 ago
If it's censored you know it's true
heygeorge ago
It’s not a Johns Hopkins Study. The disappearance of the student journal article is not a mystery.
BoozyB ago
"Dr. Genevieve Briand, the “Assistant Director for MS in Applied Economics,” gave a video lecture in which she examined the deaths due to COVID-19 and deaths overall in the U.S. hosted a friendly conversation on a morose topic on November 11, 2020."
It was a study. From a faculty member at JHU.
It was reported by the student newsletter.
heygeorge ago
It was a lecture billed as ‘friendly conversation’, not a study, presented by someone in a different field.
If your HS gym teacher quotes half a line from MacBeth and you provide the rest, you don’t get to say you aced your Literature final exam without being a disingenuous twat.
Anyone parroting this as a Johns Hopkins Study is being manipulated.
Crikes ago
Not necessarily... but if it's sad on TV/radio/newspaper/FB, you know it can't be true.
Hispeedtim2876 ago
Yep. Does the enemy understand the Streisand effect. They can’t be this stupid?
https://files.catbox.moe/2rhrqb.jpeg
https://postimg.cc/4HZj3Wxb
whohat ago
no doubt about that at all
Lin1669 ago
Anyone surprised????
whohat ago
https://notthebee.com/article/a-few-days-ago-johns-hopkins-published-a-study-saying-corona-is-nbd-they-then-deleted-it-read-it-here-in-its-entirety
A few days ago Johns Hopkins published a study saying corona is nbd. They then deleted it. Read it here in its entirety.
Helena73 ago
This is the bit I really object to. It is just a lie.
Helena73 ago
What is nbd?
MrPim ago
No big deal
Helena73 ago
Oh.