I think the meme battle is a damn good idea. It works for sure I mean look at what 4chan has accomplished over the years that's fine beautiful stuff. Seriously use Twitter as a Left HC supporter have them turn Pizzagate into their own battle to find missing children. They love attaching to anything that makes them important.
This post is missing about half of the US. Where are the rest of the states?
It is well known that the northwest has been the haven for missing children per 100k population for decades. I watched Unsolved Mysteries - I know
I will be submitting my full geographic analysis of the NEMC site probably Friday, with accompanying maps and downloadable data(CSV, Shapefile, images of the analysis). I scraped all the data from their site into a database. At first glance it doesn't seem real complete considering I've heard these huge numbers tossed around about number of missing per year(24,000 , 800,000, etc). Total count for all states is 4000, a smidgen really but who knows. I'm just looking at the hard data I do have. NEMC numbers seem low but 800,000/yr or even 24,000/yr seem high. Wouldn't Amber Alerts be going off all the time? lol
My guess would be that past years' reported kids are lower because they've been found. Kids reported missing this year are still missing. But since the vast majority of missing kids are found, stats of kids still missing will be enormously loaded toward the current year.
Even since I first looked at the stats yesterday, the number missing has gone from 415 to 407.
I've been wanting to do this when I get time, but I'm suspicious that this lead doesn't include information for all 50 states. I was trying to find that and I came across this: https://i.sli.mg/9Aifs1.png
I need time to verify this against other sources (Huffington Post is a glorified blog) but the image has sources.
That's 260 more than per the next contending state. To put that in perspective let's compair other state with their next contendor.
MD - 0 (Still second highest though)
FL - 20
MA - 40
TN - 7
DC - 0 (Still high though)
Virginia completely breaks the distribution. That's 260 more than could be explained by distribution. The others indicate the effect of limited sample. So deduct 40 and the rest cannot be explained by statistics.
It just fits so well. Also iirc in the video the researcher said that for the anomaly of high number of missing children relative to the population, there are also significant less photographs of the missing children than in other states/areas.
NEMC makes clear on every page that the results will include kids who went missing from a different state, but may now be in the state you queried. So you ought to go through all the records for each state to eliminate all the kids that went missing from somewhere else. In other words, Virginia's total should not include kids who went missing in California but may now be in VA, this does not add to the theory that kids are abducted from VA more than other states.
You need to clean up those numbers and re-make the chart with accurate figures.
You also need to figure out why/how NEMC can say there are 415 missing kids in VA, while the DOJ missing person statistics show only 211 people OF ALL AGES missing in VA. You need to account for this discrepancy.
From what I've gleaned thus far, as an IT pro, it appears the NCMEC is (possibly) purposely making the stats difficult to process. It is simply unfathomable that we don't have better tools online and publicly available - simple Google Maps overlays with extensible data, e.g. VA also appears to hide the DOB field (though indicates age in another). It is all so jumbled that it appears to an outside IT pro perspective to either be gross incompetence or purposeful obfuscation.
That said, to your point about the stats themselves - I see exactly what you do. But easily processing them again is ridiculously painstaking in the present form of the non-extensible data. I'm looking into culling the HTML & converting fields to something I can work with, XML e.g.
One final thought - the data anomalies you note would not necessarily - but probably be applicable to all the other states.
Yes, the out-of-state figures would apply to each state, but possibly VA would have more than others, proportionally. Impossible to say without going through all of them. And the same applies for the difference between DOJ and NEMC numbers, but I think it is still important to figure out why that discrepancy exists.
But even that fact, (the children listed in VA may have originated missing from another state), is again, either purposeful or incompetent obfuscation. When you search a state for the missing, you're assuming they're missing from that state. "Thought to be traveling to or in" a particular state should be a completely separate category within each state. And the missing link in the original state should have a link under each child that has that sub category to click on.
That's not rocket science to people whose goal it is to actually find and save missing children.
The big question to me is why the numbers are so hugely different from the NCIC's Missing Persons Database. NCMEC says Virginia has 415 missing kids; if we do a search for Virginia in the NCIC database, there are only 40-something missing people 16 and under, and those go back to 1957. Wtf?
Wow. Didn't know that. I guess our main question should be after John Walsh, and the national spotlight on missing kids, why would the databases be so terrible, at the least, and purposefully misleading at worst?
So if I limit the NCMEC search to kids missing up through the end of 2014, I get 73 for Virginia. That's .87 per 100k. Some others:
Through the end of 2014:
Virginia: .87 per 100k
Florida: .87
Michigan: .55
New York: .55
Texas: .63
So not nearly as wide a gap. So either there's been a huge rash of missing kids in the last two years, or VA is slower about updating their databases when they find kids or something. Or maybe quicker to notify NMCEC when one is reported missing?
I haven't had time to look up where the numbers come from. I assume NCMEC has more or different sources than NCIC. I would assume they aren't just making people up. For example, I look up a random kid listed as missing from Virginia on NCMEC, and then when I do an NCIC search for that name, I get zero results -- from a nationwide search. So plenty of the kids on NCMEC simply aren't in the DOJ's NCIC database for whatever reason.
On looking a little closer, NCMEC shows sources as either NCMEC or Virginia Missing Children Clearinghouse. None of the latter appear in the NCIC database and most of these are more recent. NCIC only shows one child from 2016.
Possibly NCIC does not add to the database unless a certain amount of time has passed or some other condition is met.
I think it might be more useful to only look at missing persons from prior years, maybe 2 years ago, since the great majority of missing kids will be found. Maybe VA database is just updated less frequently than other states' or something like that?
Perhaps it would be more useful to gather stats on how many kids are still missing from each state who went missing prior to 2016, if not 2015, to account for possible record-keeping issues.
It could certainly be a record keeping/tracking issue. The problem is that they're supposedly dealing with one of the most serious issues ever, and it's not caretaken more? That, to me, is simply incredible. I do go back to Noreen Gosche who said that it really is up to the parents if you want to find your kid. She felt she had many roadblocks in terms of getting information or getting information out and had to become a one woman force looking for her child. John Walsh did similar things wrt to Adam. Maybe it would be worth a shot to try to contact either of them and get their take on the data and tracking?
As it's a MANUAL process (thanks, NCMEC!), I only ran the data I could in timely fashion. I figured I wanted to know the DC area and surrounding, so I worked away from that - hence the "Eastern US".
Check my other post in this thread and the image as well as the YT video where an anonymous researcher talks about this anomaly. It is very interesting but disturbing at the same time but I think my picture, while crude and without good photoshop skills, transports the message pretty well. It could be pimped though :)
save_thechildren ago
Please check out the tunnels in VA- also Mt Weather VA- a shadow govt there- CIA??
ganesha1024 ago
What about west coast?
TokyoJoe ago
I think the meme battle is a damn good idea. It works for sure I mean look at what 4chan has accomplished over the years that's fine beautiful stuff. Seriously use Twitter as a Left HC supporter have them turn Pizzagate into their own battle to find missing children. They love attaching to anything that makes them important.
RedGreenAlliance ago
added to the MEME THREAD - please check it out and contribute if you can https://voat.co/v/pizzagate/1468006
piv0t ago
This post is missing about half of the US. Where are the rest of the states? It is well known that the northwest has been the haven for missing children per 100k population for decades. I watched Unsolved Mysteries - I know
AliensInParis ago
How did you get these numbers? I looked into the site myself and wasn't able to come to the same data.
ecleticTurtle ago
I will be submitting my full geographic analysis of the NEMC site probably Friday, with accompanying maps and downloadable data(CSV, Shapefile, images of the analysis). I scraped all the data from their site into a database. At first glance it doesn't seem real complete considering I've heard these huge numbers tossed around about number of missing per year(24,000 , 800,000, etc). Total count for all states is 4000, a smidgen really but who knows. I'm just looking at the hard data I do have. NEMC numbers seem low but 800,000/yr or even 24,000/yr seem high. Wouldn't Amber Alerts be going off all the time? lol
comeonpeople ago
My guess would be that past years' reported kids are lower because they've been found. Kids reported missing this year are still missing. But since the vast majority of missing kids are found, stats of kids still missing will be enormously loaded toward the current year.
Even since I first looked at the stats yesterday, the number missing has gone from 415 to 407.
reconstructedcaribou ago
I've been wanting to do this when I get time, but I'm suspicious that this lead doesn't include information for all 50 states. I was trying to find that and I came across this: https://i.sli.mg/9Aifs1.png
I need time to verify this against other sources (Huffington Post is a glorified blog) but the image has sources.
Splinterinyourmind ago
This is so damning.
bikergang_accountant ago
That's 260 more than per the next contending state. To put that in perspective let's compair other state with their next contendor.
MD - 0 (Still second highest though) FL - 20 MA - 40 TN - 7 DC - 0 (Still high though)
Virginia completely breaks the distribution. That's 260 more than could be explained by distribution. The others indicate the effect of limited sample. So deduct 40 and the rest cannot be explained by statistics.
skjult ago
Per NOW. 12/1 data run. Point in time. Rate is # missing per 100K people (a typical population geography stat).
Rusdy ago
I made an infographic based on this Youtube video about the issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaM3GIEX0yU
http://sli.mg/VOQHK1
It just fits so well. Also iirc in the video the researcher said that for the anomaly of high number of missing children relative to the population, there are also significant less photographs of the missing children than in other states/areas.
comeonpeople ago
NEMC makes clear on every page that the results will include kids who went missing from a different state, but may now be in the state you queried. So you ought to go through all the records for each state to eliminate all the kids that went missing from somewhere else. In other words, Virginia's total should not include kids who went missing in California but may now be in VA, this does not add to the theory that kids are abducted from VA more than other states.
You need to clean up those numbers and re-make the chart with accurate figures.
You also need to figure out why/how NEMC can say there are 415 missing kids in VA, while the DOJ missing person statistics show only 211 people OF ALL AGES missing in VA. You need to account for this discrepancy.
skjult ago
From what I've gleaned thus far, as an IT pro, it appears the NCMEC is (possibly) purposely making the stats difficult to process. It is simply unfathomable that we don't have better tools online and publicly available - simple Google Maps overlays with extensible data, e.g. VA also appears to hide the DOB field (though indicates age in another). It is all so jumbled that it appears to an outside IT pro perspective to either be gross incompetence or purposeful obfuscation.
That said, to your point about the stats themselves - I see exactly what you do. But easily processing them again is ridiculously painstaking in the present form of the non-extensible data. I'm looking into culling the HTML & converting fields to something I can work with, XML e.g.
One final thought - the data anomalies you note would not necessarily - but probably be applicable to all the other states.
comeonpeople ago
Yes, the out-of-state figures would apply to each state, but possibly VA would have more than others, proportionally. Impossible to say without going through all of them. And the same applies for the difference between DOJ and NEMC numbers, but I think it is still important to figure out why that discrepancy exists.
Why did you go with NEMC rather than DOJ data? Because DOJ doesn't limit it to children? Link in case you haven't already been there: https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/search
Freemasonsrus ago
But even that fact, (the children listed in VA may have originated missing from another state), is again, either purposeful or incompetent obfuscation. When you search a state for the missing, you're assuming they're missing from that state. "Thought to be traveling to or in" a particular state should be a completely separate category within each state. And the missing link in the original state should have a link under each child that has that sub category to click on. That's not rocket science to people whose goal it is to actually find and save missing children.
comeonpeople ago
True.
The big question to me is why the numbers are so hugely different from the NCIC's Missing Persons Database. NCMEC says Virginia has 415 missing kids; if we do a search for Virginia in the NCIC database, there are only 40-something missing people 16 and under, and those go back to 1957. Wtf?
Freemasonsrus ago
Wow. Didn't know that. I guess our main question should be after John Walsh, and the national spotlight on missing kids, why would the databases be so terrible, at the least, and purposefully misleading at worst?
comeonpeople ago
So if I limit the NCMEC search to kids missing up through the end of 2014, I get 73 for Virginia. That's .87 per 100k. Some others:
Through the end of 2014:
Virginia: .87 per 100k Florida: .87 Michigan: .55 New York: .55 Texas: .63
So not nearly as wide a gap. So either there's been a huge rash of missing kids in the last two years, or VA is slower about updating their databases when they find kids or something. Or maybe quicker to notify NMCEC when one is reported missing?
Freemasonsrus ago
Slower taking them off the list once found?
comeonpeople ago
I haven't had time to look up where the numbers come from. I assume NCMEC has more or different sources than NCIC. I would assume they aren't just making people up. For example, I look up a random kid listed as missing from Virginia on NCMEC, and then when I do an NCIC search for that name, I get zero results -- from a nationwide search. So plenty of the kids on NCMEC simply aren't in the DOJ's NCIC database for whatever reason.
On looking a little closer, NCMEC shows sources as either NCMEC or Virginia Missing Children Clearinghouse. None of the latter appear in the NCIC database and most of these are more recent. NCIC only shows one child from 2016.
Possibly NCIC does not add to the database unless a certain amount of time has passed or some other condition is met.
I think it might be more useful to only look at missing persons from prior years, maybe 2 years ago, since the great majority of missing kids will be found. Maybe VA database is just updated less frequently than other states' or something like that?
Perhaps it would be more useful to gather stats on how many kids are still missing from each state who went missing prior to 2016, if not 2015, to account for possible record-keeping issues.
Freemasonsrus ago
It could certainly be a record keeping/tracking issue. The problem is that they're supposedly dealing with one of the most serious issues ever, and it's not caretaken more? That, to me, is simply incredible. I do go back to Noreen Gosche who said that it really is up to the parents if you want to find your kid. She felt she had many roadblocks in terms of getting information or getting information out and had to become a one woman force looking for her child. John Walsh did similar things wrt to Adam. Maybe it would be worth a shot to try to contact either of them and get their take on the data and tracking?
strange_69 ago
How can CA not be on there?
remedy4reality ago
California led in total, but with it's population of 39 million, it is down on the average.
skjult ago
As it's a MANUAL process (thanks, NCMEC!), I only ran the data I could in timely fashion. I figured I wanted to know the DC area and surrounding, so I worked away from that - hence the "Eastern US".
skjult ago
Here's a graphic drawn from these #s:
http://i.imgur.com/or6cWc9.jpg
skjult ago
Another:
http://i.imgur.com/83NMq0z.png
Riva ago
This one is very clear. i understood the implications right away. the other ones are a bit too colorful etc. good job
skjult ago
Yeah, definitely don't want to relate this issue with happy colors. :-(
skjult ago
Another:
http://i.imgur.com/yYI3EMt.png
danwan ago
these are missing where a child was not found later?
skjult ago
Currently marked as missing per NCMEC 12/1.
quantokitty ago
That right there needs to be put in another format.
It doesn't pop out and make the point that something very weird is going on.
Remember: this info needs to be simple and concise. Reading stats and strange color coding is hiding and obscuring the facts.
Rusdy ago
Check my other post in this thread and the image as well as the YT video where an anonymous researcher talks about this anomaly. It is very interesting but disturbing at the same time but I think my picture, while crude and without good photoshop skills, transports the message pretty well. It could be pimped though :)
Edit: http://sli.mg/VOQHK1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaM3GIEX0yU
skjult ago
http://i.imgur.com/4ZE8AwQ.png http://i.imgur.com/yYI3EMt.png http://i.imgur.com/83NMq0z.png http://i.imgur.com/or6cWc9.jpg
skjult ago
Just raw data supporting other items I'm posting.
quantokitty ago
Understood. I only meant to urge you to put it in a clear, concise format that people will get when they glance at it.
skjult ago
https://voat.co/v/pizzagate/1468759
VictorDaniels777 ago
Virginia anomalies surrounding missing children is an important piece to the puzzle.
derram ago
non-imgur link: https://files.catbox.moe/q2xkjq.png
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