The virus is real, and it is very contagious (there are multiple strains out there right now too). But it is not NEAR as lethal as they have told us. They over-exaggerated the lethality by 3-10x.
Initial WHO report was 3.4%, I doubt it is more than 1%, if you take asymptomatic cases into account (and that not everyone who has had it was tested, esp. less serious cases).
Then you take into account that they are overinflating deaths by a bit, impossible to say how much, by saying people over 80, with multiple health conditions, are dying of Coronavirus.
Germany is, by far, the best in terms of healthcare, healthy people, excellent supply of ventilators and all that, in fact they're taking in some patients from France as they have excess capacity. So we'll take them as the best-case scenario - but remember this IS the best case, with excellent hospitals working perfectly, not overwhelmed.
So today they still have less than 1000 deaths, let me check.. 856.
We know from infection to death is around 17 days, but let's go from symptoms to death, which is around 14 days. No let's go further, from severe symptoms to death, let's say 7 days, a week. I've seen 10 days in one report but we'll say a week.
Quick caveat, Germany, like the UK, under-reports some deaths, and the do huge amounts of testing, so high case count compared to death count.
So if we go back a week, say the 23rd of March, how many known cases did Germany have?
33,991. Let's call that 40,000.
So to get the percentage we divde the deaths by the cases, then times 100, right?
856 / 40,000 (x100) = 2.14%
And honestly, seriously, German is by far the best case.
Let's do the same with the worst case, Italy.
Today's deaths, in total - 13,115
How many known cases did they have on the 24th of March, a week ago? 69,175
13,115 / 69,175, x100= 18.9%
You say overinflating but not really, if the person is not tested and proven, dead or alive, then Germany doesn't count them as a C19 death. The UK is not counting those that die outside of hospital for example (I believe that is changing soon).
Last week in the Spectator, a journalist said "Well one way we can tell if we have a deadly disease, has the death rate gone up?"
That's a stupid way of looking at it, because even in Italy only certain areas have been hit, same as it's mostly New York, not Ohio, in America. But one country has done exactly that, it looked and asked "What is our typical number of deaths in March?"
The country was Spain.
Normally they would about about 11k deaths in March, this year 17k. A 30% increase.
858 deaths. 76k reported cases. In Germany. No need to try make it scarier by taking last week's amount of cases, and today's amount of deaths.
We know there is no way in hell the amount of deaths is under-reported, but it can be over-reported (i.e. if Coronavirus wasn't actually the primary or sole cause of death). The amount of cases is practically guaranteed to be under-reported, as not everyone can and will be tested, esp. asymptomatic. We won't bother to pump it up though.
Basic maffs, just over 1.1%, taking the cases and deaths. No accounting for over OR under-reported.
It is clear that your age and other health conditions are the MAJOR factors in how lethal this thing is, and that there are multiple strains out there. What is also clear is that death rate has been WAY overexaggerated. Between 3 and 10x.
" No need to try make it scarier by taking last week's amount of cases, and today's amount of deaths."
No dude, that's EXACTLY what you do, especially when it's growing exponentially.
You can't look at a massive explosion of cases, and then just compare those to the ones already dead. That's idiotic.
If you want such a crude metric, look at the outcomes - of all the thousand and thousands of cases we've seen, what percentage were cured and considered over it, and what percentage died?
On that basis, worldwide, the death rate is 5%. But again, that doesn't take into account the time lag, because there's plenty of people still ill and who WILL die but aren't counted yet.
Well, if we are going to look at last week's cases and then today's deaths THEN we do have to take under-reporting of cases and over-reporting of deaths into account. Which just means estimates upon estimates upon more estimates. But hey, if that is how you want it.
Is there a stigma associated with the virus? Yes. Therefore, if you are asymptomatic, would you get tested? Of course not. How many cases are asymptomatic? Supposedly it is upwards of 1/3. Could be more. Could differ by age group. Now take those with mild symptoms. Would they get tested, or be ABLE to get a test? No, probably not. Another 1/3. So now we know there are 66% more cases than verified. That means Germany had 72,000 Coronavirus cases a week ago, and 800 some deaths. Mortality rate? 1.2%
But wait, it gets better, what if just 1 in 10 of those Coronavirus patients was on death's bed already? And they are being counted as Coronavirus deaths? Lets be real, it is probably more like 25% of Coronavirus deaths, those of ppl 80+ were already in poor health and were unlikely to EVER see 2021, Coronavirus or no Coronavirus...
How many mild or no symptom cases go on to become serious or fatal? It's not zero. Time after time when you read of a specific death you read how they weren't so bad for a week or so, and then... etc.
Many tests are being done on possible contacts. I think I can find the percentage for Germany, hang on.. Nope. Anyway you'll like this article:
Sure, today's deaths may be last month's infections. But they could also be from TODAY's tests. Got it? We have no way of knowing if those who tested positive a week ago are those who are dying today. Or if the people dying today were only tested after they died (or were hospitalized).
Most cases might be people below 50 (a strange number to choose, I would divide old and young and an age much closer to 35 or at most 40) but what about DEATHS?
And? According to the math, it increases by 26% per day, doubling every 3 days.
But... There were already 17,000 confirmed cases two months ago.
That means it has only doubled 6 times in the last 2 months, instead of 20 times. Closer to a 7% daily increase over that span, even though some individual countries are increasing at a much higher rate.
Bottom line, we are dealing with incomplete data, that can be interpreted to fearmonger, like you are doing, or it can be viewed realistically, and we realize much less than 2% of HEALTHY ADULTS who even get infected will die.
In a post to someone, maybe you, last night I said the best estimate I'd found was twice that, doubling every 6 days. I also pointed out it wouldn't be that bad because people would start taking it seriously, and you only meet a certain number of people and so can't keep infecting at that rate.
You seem to think 2% is OK. If half the 300 million or so of Americans gets this shit in their lungs that's 3 million people.
It's not so much about preventing it in general, it's about slowing it down enough so that hospitals and staff can cope, and buying us time to create a vaccine or effective, safe treatment.
Decisive action should have been taken earlier to make sure it never got out of China. Period. There is no way we can accept that it was 'necessary' to lock down most of the civilized world, in order to combat this thing.
view the rest of the comments →
TheSeer ago
The virus is real, and it is very contagious (there are multiple strains out there right now too). But it is not NEAR as lethal as they have told us. They over-exaggerated the lethality by 3-10x.
RealBiggly ago
What do you think the death rate is? What do you think they say it is?
TheSeer ago
Initial WHO report was 3.4%, I doubt it is more than 1%, if you take asymptomatic cases into account (and that not everyone who has had it was tested, esp. less serious cases).
Then you take into account that they are overinflating deaths by a bit, impossible to say how much, by saying people over 80, with multiple health conditions, are dying of Coronavirus.
RealBiggly ago
OK, let's do some maffs...
Germany is, by far, the best in terms of healthcare, healthy people, excellent supply of ventilators and all that, in fact they're taking in some patients from France as they have excess capacity. So we'll take them as the best-case scenario - but remember this IS the best case, with excellent hospitals working perfectly, not overwhelmed.
So today they still have less than 1000 deaths, let me check.. 856.
We know from infection to death is around 17 days, but let's go from symptoms to death, which is around 14 days. No let's go further, from severe symptoms to death, let's say 7 days, a week. I've seen 10 days in one report but we'll say a week.
Quick caveat, Germany, like the UK, under-reports some deaths, and the do huge amounts of testing, so high case count compared to death count.
So if we go back a week, say the 23rd of March, how many known cases did Germany have?
33,991. Let's call that 40,000.
So to get the percentage we divde the deaths by the cases, then times 100, right?
856 / 40,000 (x100) = 2.14%
And honestly, seriously, German is by far the best case.
Let's do the same with the worst case, Italy.
Today's deaths, in total - 13,115
How many known cases did they have on the 24th of March, a week ago? 69,175
13,115 / 69,175, x100= 18.9%
You say overinflating but not really, if the person is not tested and proven, dead or alive, then Germany doesn't count them as a C19 death. The UK is not counting those that die outside of hospital for example (I believe that is changing soon).
Last week in the Spectator, a journalist said "Well one way we can tell if we have a deadly disease, has the death rate gone up?"
That's a stupid way of looking at it, because even in Italy only certain areas have been hit, same as it's mostly New York, not Ohio, in America. But one country has done exactly that, it looked and asked "What is our typical number of deaths in March?"
The country was Spain.
Normally they would about about 11k deaths in March, this year 17k. A 30% increase.
This isn't flu.
kakamatyi ago
interesting. that's what i always wanted to know. i'm trying to jewgle it but all it shows is PEOPLE ARE DYING RIGHT NOW. can you point me a source?
in italy's case what i find said it's still within normal influenza outbreak limits. the mortality i mean.
TheSeer ago
858 deaths. 76k reported cases. In Germany. No need to try make it scarier by taking last week's amount of cases, and today's amount of deaths.
We know there is no way in hell the amount of deaths is under-reported, but it can be over-reported (i.e. if Coronavirus wasn't actually the primary or sole cause of death). The amount of cases is practically guaranteed to be under-reported, as not everyone can and will be tested, esp. asymptomatic. We won't bother to pump it up though.
Basic maffs, just over 1.1%, taking the cases and deaths. No accounting for over OR under-reported.
It is clear that your age and other health conditions are the MAJOR factors in how lethal this thing is, and that there are multiple strains out there. What is also clear is that death rate has been WAY overexaggerated. Between 3 and 10x.
RealBiggly ago
Wait, what? WTF?
" No need to try make it scarier by taking last week's amount of cases, and today's amount of deaths."
No dude, that's EXACTLY what you do, especially when it's growing exponentially.
You can't look at a massive explosion of cases, and then just compare those to the ones already dead. That's idiotic.
If you want such a crude metric, look at the outcomes - of all the thousand and thousands of cases we've seen, what percentage were cured and considered over it, and what percentage died?
On that basis, worldwide, the death rate is 5%. But again, that doesn't take into account the time lag, because there's plenty of people still ill and who WILL die but aren't counted yet.
TheSeer ago
Well, if we are going to look at last week's cases and then today's deaths THEN we do have to take under-reporting of cases and over-reporting of deaths into account. Which just means estimates upon estimates upon more estimates. But hey, if that is how you want it.
Is there a stigma associated with the virus? Yes. Therefore, if you are asymptomatic, would you get tested? Of course not. How many cases are asymptomatic? Supposedly it is upwards of 1/3. Could be more. Could differ by age group. Now take those with mild symptoms. Would they get tested, or be ABLE to get a test? No, probably not. Another 1/3. So now we know there are 66% more cases than verified. That means Germany had 72,000 Coronavirus cases a week ago, and 800 some deaths. Mortality rate? 1.2%
But wait, it gets better, what if just 1 in 10 of those Coronavirus patients was on death's bed already? And they are being counted as Coronavirus deaths? Lets be real, it is probably more like 25% of Coronavirus deaths, those of ppl 80+ were already in poor health and were unlikely to EVER see 2021, Coronavirus or no Coronavirus...
RealBiggly ago
Some known unknowns...
How many mild or no symptom cases go on to become serious or fatal? It's not zero. Time after time when you read of a specific death you read how they weren't so bad for a week or so, and then... etc.
Many tests are being done on possible contacts. I think I can find the percentage for Germany, hang on.. Nope. Anyway you'll like this article:
https://www.businessinsider.my/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3
This article mentions that unlike other places, most of the German cases are young people below 50, and also points out
" On average, a severely ill Covid-19 patient dies 30 days after being infected"
So yeah, forget 7 days. Make it 30.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/germany-coronavirus.html
Anyway it's late here, catch you later
TheSeer ago
Sure, today's deaths may be last month's infections. But they could also be from TODAY's tests. Got it? We have no way of knowing if those who tested positive a week ago are those who are dying today. Or if the people dying today were only tested after they died (or were hospitalized).
Most cases might be people below 50 (a strange number to choose, I would divide old and young and an age much closer to 35 or at most 40) but what about DEATHS?
RealBiggly ago
I'm off to bed but by the time I wake up the known cases will be 1 million.
The cases with an outcome? 19% died.
TheSeer ago
And? According to the math, it increases by 26% per day, doubling every 3 days.
But... There were already 17,000 confirmed cases two months ago.
That means it has only doubled 6 times in the last 2 months, instead of 20 times. Closer to a 7% daily increase over that span, even though some individual countries are increasing at a much higher rate.
Bottom line, we are dealing with incomplete data, that can be interpreted to fearmonger, like you are doing, or it can be viewed realistically, and we realize much less than 2% of HEALTHY ADULTS who even get infected will die.
RealBiggly ago
When did I say it doubles every 3 days?
In a post to someone, maybe you, last night I said the best estimate I'd found was twice that, doubling every 6 days. I also pointed out it wouldn't be that bad because people would start taking it seriously, and you only meet a certain number of people and so can't keep infecting at that rate.
You seem to think 2% is OK. If half the 300 million or so of Americans gets this shit in their lungs that's 3 million people.
TheSeer ago
Well... If everyone is gonna get it, why did we shut down the entire country? 2% is not 'OK', the question is, in what way was it preventable.
RealBiggly ago
It's not so much about preventing it in general, it's about slowing it down enough so that hospitals and staff can cope, and buying us time to create a vaccine or effective, safe treatment.
Read this: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
TheSeer ago
Decisive action should have been taken earlier to make sure it never got out of China. Period. There is no way we can accept that it was 'necessary' to lock down most of the civilized world, in order to combat this thing.
RealBiggly ago
Probably was necessary, thing is you could have contained it if you locked down much earlier.
Too late now.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/01/coronavirus-kills-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/
TheSeer ago
Locked down earlier OR... Locked China OUT of the rest of the world.
RealBiggly ago
Grrr grrr woof, China bad, OK.
Now wash your hands and stay indoors.
TheSeer ago
You disagree that locking down China in early to mid January would have stopped the virus in its tracks?
RealBiggly ago
I agree it would have, probably, I just don't think that's important right now Shirley.
TheSeer ago
LOL, OK. So instead whatever the globalists suggest, going forward, is what we should go along with?