If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that...
The important part:
... completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
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Men13 ago
If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
First page - mortality per week:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
The important part:
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
OP IS A LIAR!
SearchVoatBot ago
This comment was linked from this v/whatever comment by @Glory_Beckons.
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