If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that...
The important part:
... completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
In any case US policy is probably the explanation for the excess deaths if there were any. Many were murdered by medical staff. I know some personalty that were killed with ventilators.
And Im saying many people in the US, primary old frail people, would be alive if they weren't terrorized, isolated, and put on ventilators inappropriately under the guise of COVID. Yes, ventillators kill. They are only to be used like CPR, if the patient is dead anyway as a hail Mary to keep them alive. You don't put someone who simply has trouble breathing on a vent. And thats why many doctors did because they got caught up in being told that is the right thing to do to treat COVID.
Honestly I was hoping I might learn something from you but it turned out your not worth my time. Not interested in educating since I'm extremely selfish.
If you wanted to learn - you had every opportunity. I linked 4 different sources of cold, hard, data (all from the CDC, but 4 different sources of data)
You could have at least looked at them if you really wanted to learn something.
But you don't want to learn. You want to "be right". Enjoy being right. That makes you so cool that you and only you know that this is all a lie. You're so smart.
OK then humor me - why didn't you look at the actual data I've linked multiple times? Why do you link blogs by crazy people instead of linking actual data to support your case?
Why do you insist on linking to private blogs and quaky websites instead of actual data?
Where does this blog get its data? If a person dies right now - how long will it take for that person to be added to the counter on the website? A day? A month?
Here's the same data, just as actual data you can look at:
It's a week-by-week breakdown including the number of deaths, AND THE CHANGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS for that same week (column named "percent of expected deaths")
You can see the "percent of expected deaths" is very very close to 100% in the first few weeks of the year, then it jumps and get to almost 42% for a few weeks!
Note that this pages answers the questions I asked above!
completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death
Meaning it takes a few weeks for them to get notified of deaths. So you can't trust the data for the last few weeks
Indeed, if you look at the end of the table you'll see we have just like 32% of expected deaths of the last week (because they didn't get all the notifications yet), or 77% for the week before that.
THAT'S HOW THAT BLOG YOU LINKED LIED TO YOU - they pretended the data for the last few weeks was accurate, when in fact they explicitly state it's missing deaths.
Remove the last few weeks and you'll see the total number of deaths this year is much much higher than previous years.
view the rest of the comments →
Men13 ago
If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
First page - mortality per week:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
The important part:
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
OP IS A LIAR!
crazy_eyes ago
so let us know when you have the data showing 4 million deaths in the US in 2020
Men13 ago
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Or a different page that looks per-month and has 2020 data for the first 6 months, and 2019 data you can compare to? I have that as well!
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
I linked the data, you can check for yourself.
Good enough for you?
crazy_eyes ago
You said the deaths were up 40% that would make for 4 million deaths if you take an average year and add 40% additional deaths
Men13 ago
...
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
crazy_eyes ago
Johns Hopkins disagrees with your data
https://web.archive.org/web/20201122214034/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
prairie ago
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
crazy_eyes ago
bullshit, it looks at death rate of all age groups, and there is no significant increase in deaths of ANY age group
Men13 ago
Why are you so chicken that you can't look at the data yourself to make a decision? Why do you need to read about other people who looked at the data?
What are you afraid of?
Tandemlee ago
55 million deaths this year total: https://countrymeters.info/en/World
57 million total died in 2017
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
Men13 ago
I don't care about "the world" I live in the US.
The US has 300k extra dead this year compared to previous years. I've linked to the data multiple times already.
Sure, the world as a whole had wars in 2017,, and handled COVID better than we did. That's meaningless. I care about the US only.
Tandemlee ago
In any case US policy is probably the explanation for the excess deaths if there were any. Many were murdered by medical staff. I know some personalty that were killed with ventilators.
Men13 ago
Why were they on ventilators I wonder <.<
so you're saying 300 thousand more people than usual were killed by doctors this year? That's what you're going with?
Tandemlee ago
Im saying there was no global increase in deaths.
And Im saying many people in the US, primary old frail people, would be alive if they weren't terrorized, isolated, and put on ventilators inappropriately under the guise of COVID. Yes, ventillators kill. They are only to be used like CPR, if the patient is dead anyway as a hail Mary to keep them alive. You don't put someone who simply has trouble breathing on a vent. And thats why many doctors did because they got caught up in being told that is the right thing to do to treat COVID.
Men13 ago
I agree. There was no global increase in deaths vs 2017. 100% agree.
There was a US increase in death though.
You claim it's from ventilators? You think we had 300k people on ventilators in the US? OK sure - I'll entertain the idea.
What makes you think that? What actual data did you use? Do you know how many people were put on ventilators in the US?
Do you know how many people died when on ventilators in the US this year? If that number is 300k, then you might be on to something!
Can you link me the data about death connected to ventilators? Or did you just invent that because you want to be right at any cost?
Tandemlee ago
All I see here is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Men13 ago
OK so you just made a claim with nothing to back you up.
You don't care about the truth, you just care about confirming your point of view.
Fine. Some people like being sheep. I personally prefer to be skeptical and learn about the world first hand.
Tandemlee ago
baaaaaaaaaaaaa
Honestly I was hoping I might learn something from you but it turned out your not worth my time. Not interested in educating since I'm extremely selfish.
Men13 ago
No you weren't.
If you wanted to learn - you had every opportunity. I linked 4 different sources of cold, hard, data (all from the CDC, but 4 different sources of data)
You could have at least looked at them if you really wanted to learn something.
But you don't want to learn. You want to "be right". Enjoy being right. That makes you so cool that you and only you know that this is all a lie. You're so smart.
Tandemlee ago
Lol you know nothing about me yet you throw your projections at me like a confused sheep.
You must be wearing the mask to tight poor baby
Men13 ago
OK then humor me - why didn't you look at the actual data I've linked multiple times? Why do you link blogs by crazy people instead of linking actual data to support your case?
Can you explain that?
Tandemlee ago
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/11/how-many-people-died-the-year-you-were-born/111928450/
we have 2.8 million deaths usually every year in the usa\
looks like weve have 2.4 million so far this year
https://countrymeters.info/en/United_States_of_America_(USA)
Men13 ago
Why do you insist on linking to private blogs and quaky websites instead of actual data?
Where does this blog get its data? If a person dies right now - how long will it take for that person to be added to the counter on the website? A day? A month?
Here's the same data, just as actual data you can look at:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
It's a week-by-week breakdown including the number of deaths, AND THE CHANGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS for that same week (column named "percent of expected deaths")
You can see the "percent of expected deaths" is very very close to 100% in the first few weeks of the year, then it jumps and get to almost 42% for a few weeks!
Note that this pages answers the questions I asked above!
Meaning it takes a few weeks for them to get notified of deaths. So you can't trust the data for the last few weeks
Indeed, if you look at the end of the table you'll see we have just like 32% of expected deaths of the last week (because they didn't get all the notifications yet), or 77% for the week before that.
THAT'S HOW THAT BLOG YOU LINKED LIED TO YOU - they pretended the data for the last few weeks was accurate, when in fact they explicitly state it's missing deaths.
Remove the last few weeks and you'll see the total number of deaths this year is much much higher than previous years.
Tandemlee ago
2,579,548 is the number in the link you gave, it was 2,486,519 in my link
And i didnt link a blog wtf.
Are you jewish?