If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that...
The important part:
... completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
you know what, fuck you, you are the fucking liar.
There is no Pandemic.
I explained that to you already. You poo poo'd that by saying I watch too many movies. Thing is, your assumptions are entirely incorrect. I do not watch any movies. I do not watch any TV.
If you believe that in an actual pandemic that medical providers would be using nothing more than a paper mask to protect themselves and their lives you are a fool. They would all be dead within a week in a real pandemic.
view the rest of the comments →
Men13 ago
If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
First page - mortality per week:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
The important part:
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
OP IS A LIAR!
crazy_eyes ago
so let us know when you have the data showing 4 million deaths in the US in 2020
Men13 ago
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Or a different page that looks per-month and has 2020 data for the first 6 months, and 2019 data you can compare to? I have that as well!
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
I linked the data, you can check for yourself.
Good enough for you?
crazy_eyes ago
You said the deaths were up 40% that would make for 4 million deaths if you take an average year and add 40% additional deaths
Men13 ago
...
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
crazy_eyes ago
Johns Hopkins disagrees with your data
https://web.archive.org/web/20201122214034/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
prairie ago
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
crazy_eyes ago
bullshit, it looks at death rate of all age groups, and there is no significant increase in deaths of ANY age group
Men13 ago
Why are you so chicken that you can't look at the data yourself to make a decision? Why do you need to read about other people who looked at the data?
What are you afraid of?
crazy_eyes ago
you are the one who is in fear, i have no fear. I know truth from lies
Even in the hospitals the staff there do not wear containment suits.
There is no deadly pandemic, that is a fact
Men13 ago
You wouldn't know the truth if it were staring you in the face.
Which right now it actually is staring you in the face - and you refuse to even look at it.
Did you even try to look at the actual data yourself?
crazy_eyes ago
i have looked at the data, and there is no evidence of a pandemic, hell there is no evidence that covid19 even actually exists
Men13 ago
Did you look at the data? Really? Can you link me the data you looked at? I'd love to see the same data you saw.
Link or it didn't happen.
crazy_eyes ago
i sent you the Johns Hopkins data, and you pretty much discarded it instantly, so why should i bother?
Men13 ago
Liar - you sent me a john hopkins student's newsletter TALKING about the data.
Did you send me the actual data? No you didn't. You said you saw the actual data - please, send me the actual data.
The actual numbers.
NOT an article discussing the data - the actual numbers.
crazy_eyes ago
you know what, fuck you, you are the fucking liar.
There is no Pandemic.
I explained that to you already. You poo poo'd that by saying I watch too many movies. Thing is, your assumptions are entirely incorrect. I do not watch any movies. I do not watch any TV.
If you believe that in an actual pandemic that medical providers would be using nothing more than a paper mask to protect themselves and their lives you are a fool. They would all be dead within a week in a real pandemic.
Men13 ago
You said you looked at the data.
Link me the data. If you don't link me the data (actual numbers - you know: "data"), then I'll know you lied and you didn't look at the data.
Data or GTFO
crazy_eyes ago
adios asshole
Men13 ago
So you admit you lied when you claimed you saw the data.
OK. Liar confirmed.