If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that...
The important part:
... completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
What are you talking about - I gave literally 4 different links pointing to actual, real, data (not opinions, not "discussions about the data", actual cold hard data).
I've linked them multiple times, and even put the data itself in my posts. In this actual thread you're replying to I've posted data.
Did you look at the data at all?
And most of the world handled Covid19 pretty well. It's just the US that went crazy. The US has a measurable 300k extra deaths this year so far compared to previous years - and I've given the data multiple times.
if it was a terrible global catastrophe like your masters want you to believe there would be 100 millions total deaths, or 150 million. Not roughly the same as every year.
Idk why Im engaging you Im usually good with not arguing with idiots
view the rest of the comments →
Men13 ago
If anyone wants to know where OP actually lied - I copied both links here so you can follow them and look for yourself.
TL;DR: For 2020, in addition to missing the "future" (which OP accounted for) it's missing the "near past" (because the CDC gets death notices from local morgues a few weeks after death). OP "forgot" to account for that.
The CDC's data has the correct number of "deaths compared to previous years" that OP claims to calculate and it shows MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEATHS. But OP decided to hide these numbers from you and instead wrongly calculate them himself to spread misinformation.
Like all good lies - they intentionally fudge 2 different ways of counting and comparing them.
First page - mortality per week:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Note that there's a column called "percent of expected deaths" that does exactly what OP claims to do - compares the number of deaths to previous years. And you can see it's significantly over 100% almost every week - PEAKING AT 142% FOR SEVERAL WEEKS!
That's 40% EXTRA DEAD compared to previous years! It's HUGE!
Anyway - IF OP were honest, they'd use this data: data counted the same way in multiple years.
But OP is a liar - so they instead decided to use this page for comparison:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
They got the total deaths in 2018, and did "math" to compare the numbers.
Why is it wrong? They are both deaths, so why can't we use both numbers?
Well, let's read the comment on the first page:
The important part:
Meaning real-time data is hard to get. The data takes a few weeks to get from local morgues etc. to the CDC. Meaning the data for the last few weeks is lower than the real data!!!
WE CAN SEE IT IN THE ACTUAL TABLE! Look at the last 4-5 weeks in the table, you'll see the "percent of expected deaths" is extremely low there - like 32% in the last week, 77% in the previous week etc.
Why? Because it's only partial data!
THIS IS OP'S LIE!!! He knows that the data is incomplete (real-time data always is) but pretends in his math that it is complete and compares it to complete data from 2018. Instead of using the week-by-week comparison that would show the 142% of expected death in multiple weeks.
OP IS A LIAR!
crazy_eyes ago
so let us know when you have the data showing 4 million deaths in the US in 2020
Men13 ago
There will be no data about 4 million deaths, since the death increase is "only" about 10-15%, so from 2.8 million to around 3.2 million (extra 300-400k)
And I don't want to wait until 2021 to get data, so instead how about I look at the number of deaths per week, and ignore the last few weeks since their data is incomplete. Sounds good?
I can do that now! How cool is that? Here's the data:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Or a different page that looks per-month and has 2020 data for the first 6 months, and 2019 data you can compare to? I have that as well!
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
You can look yourself and see - there are HUGE excess death numbers between 2020 and previous years. Almost 200k extra dead in just the first 6 months. More now.
I linked the data, you can check for yourself.
Good enough for you?
crazy_eyes ago
You said the deaths were up 40% that would make for 4 million deaths if you take an average year and add 40% additional deaths
Men13 ago
...
Really? Really?! I said deaths were up 40% for several weeks, NOT for the entire year.
Here's what I wrote:
The 40% is the peak difference, meaning the biggest difference, not the average difference. You know - like the peak of a mountain isn't the hight of the entire mountain, just of one spot at the top.
crazy_eyes ago
Johns Hopkins disagrees with your data
https://web.archive.org/web/20201122214034/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
prairie ago
That article is looking at the relative levels of different causes of death, and different age groups. A different angle on calling the hoax out, but doesn't counter there being more total deaths due to all causes.
crazy_eyes ago
bullshit, it looks at death rate of all age groups, and there is no significant increase in deaths of ANY age group
Men13 ago
Why are you so chicken that you can't look at the data yourself to make a decision? Why do you need to read about other people who looked at the data?
What are you afraid of?
Tandemlee ago
Why don't you try to explain your point with data instead of making personal attacks? What are you afraid of?
Where have you seen there is more deaths due to all causes?
Usually we get around 57 million global deaths a year, this year so far we have 54 million. There has not been more all cause deaths this year.
Men13 ago
What are you talking about - I gave literally 4 different links pointing to actual, real, data (not opinions, not "discussions about the data", actual cold hard data).
I've linked them multiple times, and even put the data itself in my posts. In this actual thread you're replying to I've posted data.
Did you look at the data at all?
And most of the world handled Covid19 pretty well. It's just the US that went crazy. The US has a measurable 300k extra deaths this year so far compared to previous years - and I've given the data multiple times.
Tandemlee ago
Usually we get around 57 million global deaths a year, this year so far we have 54 million. There has not been more all cause deaths this year.
I gave you two links indicating and you have no response, link boy. You're full of shit.
Men13 ago
I had multiple responses. I said:
there were more wars in 2017 than now (e.g. syrian deaths)
the world as a whole handled COVID very well and has a fraction of the deaths as the US.
Why are you changing the conversation from the US to the world? Because the US data disagrees with your bias?
Tandemlee ago
if it was a terrible global catastrophe like your masters want you to believe there would be 100 millions total deaths, or 150 million. Not roughly the same as every year.
Idk why Im engaging you Im usually good with not arguing with idiots
Men13 ago
Why? It's a disease with about 1% mortality rate. How would that ever get to 100 million deaths even if every single person got sick?
Most people in the world didn't get sick because their governments were functional.
It's just the US that's so crazy.
Tandemlee ago
https://www.nukepro.net/2020/10/total-all-cause-deaths-in-usa-2017-thru.html
Men13 ago
Oh a BLOG! Wow, yeah - a BLOG never lies! Never!
BTW - he does actually lie. Like really - I've read this page it's lies.
For example - which months does he use for comparison? Oct, Nov, Dec - you know, the months that didn't actually happen yet!
Why? Because then he'll have to "extrapolate" the data and it gives him the opportunity to do some wrong "math".
Why didn't he choose 3 months that actually happened already this year? For example, why didn't he do APR, MAY, JUNE?
BECAUSE THEN YOU'D SEE HE'S LYING.
Here's an alternative link, which has actual death numbers for 2019 and 2020:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
You can look at the data yourself, but if you're too lazy I copied the total deaths column here:
2019 January 258,000
2019 February 233,000
2019 March 255,000
2019 April 235,000
2019 May 237,000
2019 June 225,000
2020 January 264,000 +6k since last year
2020 February 244,000 +11k since last year
2020 March 269,000 +14k since last year
2020 April 321,000 +86k (!) Since last year
2020 May 279,000 +42k since last year
2020 June 249,000 +24k since last year
Do you dare look at actual data?
Tandemlee ago
Also, you are only comparing to 2019 and not looking at the yearly average, how much was it in 2015? 2016? How does this year compare?
Men13 ago
I just linked you data that compares 2020 to 2017-2019 (averages those 3 years and sees how much 2020 deaths are compared to that average every week)
You can look at my other reply for details, but I'll link the page here as well:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm