Hallo guys,
In the last 2 weeks, I did a serious research on pizzagate. I have collected the data on all missing children from ncmec website (missingkids.com) and put it in a database and ran some statistical research on Virginia and other states. All the project files including the database can be found on my github repository
Sadly the research files are in german, thats why i will give you a short overview, but you can find them here on my homepage if you are interested, its around 30 pages with many maps.
The direct link for the file is here.
Sorry for my english. :-)
The results:
The data for the last 3 years cant be analyzed, because there are to many false positive results (to many children yet to be found, which have no connection to pizzagate) - it was shown that we can't use the last 3 years for this reason. So I used the timeframe from 1984 - 2013 (30 years).
Its important to notice, that most data is based on "missing childs per capita" so it doesn't matter, how many citizens live in a certain US state or county.
First of all, I just calculated the number of missing children from the database for the last 30 years, and Virginia is just number 13 out of 50 states + DC. Maryland was number 7. I have plotted the data on a USA map and somehow Virginia and Maryland were both suspicious. Its because all states in east USA were in a better shape than Virginia and Maryland. You can see the map in a file I posted above.
Thats why I started to watch the changes among the timeframe and I have found, that between 1984-2005, Virginia used to be number 37 - it means one of the safest US States for missing children (it was very unlikely missing kinds couldn't be found - in whatever condition) - Virginia was very similar to all other states in east USA. It turns around since 2006, since then its number 1 countrywide - I was shocked.
I have calulated the "missing childs per capita changes" among all states and calculated how likely it is, for such a change like it occurred in Virginia. The odds are 0,014%, its around 3,4 sigma event (for statisticians) among all states and its extremely unlikely being a coincidence.
Further I have compared Virginia just among the east coast, because its easy to see, there are a east/west and some north/south differences on "missing child per capita" for all timeframes. The results for just the east USA were about the same, 0,015% for being just a coincidence.
The way I have calculated the numbers, you cant explain them as population change, or crime rate, crime rate change, or wealth change or whatever....Further I have calculated the "overhead" for Virginia, and the number is 21 children between 2006-2013. They are likely to be victims of pedophiles.
Then I also compared the US counties, and Fairfax is nr. 1 county wide among all counties with more than 500000 inhabitants. Baltimore is suspicious too. It is possible that there were some pedophile switch from Baltimore to Fairfax county between 2006-2013.
There are some more calculations, but they are not as important. Much more explanations can be found in the pdf file as stated above. Its important to realize, that imported children, like from Haiti would not be visible among these results since they would not be missing in USA.
bye
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zoupSER ago
A little more in-depth, however we have known about the higher rate in Virginia. And it is suspect.
Thanks for looking into this further.
Pizza_agent ago
Yes, I know, the higher Virginia numbers are well known. But the problem was, these Virginia numbers are misleading, since they contain all current missing children and 95% of missing children are found within 3 years. Some guy even called the Virginia police department and asked them about the high numbers. They claimed, it was just because Virginia reports much faster on every case and like 90% - 95% of them are found, thats the reason for high numbers.
If you take it into account and remove the missing children for the last 3 years, Virginia is just nr. 13 countrywide on missing childs per capita for the last 30 years. So, the police claims seems to be legit, but in fact, its bs. If you look closer, there is an increase since 2006. For instance, in Fairfax county, between 1984-2005 (22 years) there is only one child missing. But between 2006-2013 (8 years) there are 12 childs missing.