I made this statement on Dec 26th here:
https://voat.co/v/QRV/2935537/
I was amazed it drew such little interest, given the political and financial instability in recent years.
CNBC's Carter Worth said the same, but a week LATER if you look at the date on the video IN THE VIDEO ITSELF; he called it on Dec 31st:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/01/technician-who-called-the-gold-rally-now-sees-this-for-the-metal.html
Then just the other day, it was reported that central banks around the world have bought gold in 2018 at a higher rate than they have in the last half-century:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/world-gold-council-central-banks-buy-most-gold-since-1967-.html
I guess I didn't make myself clear enough when I said "Buy silver NOW at $15.00/oz." I meant BUY IT NOW. I got a comment or two about "not wanting to buy a 'spike' in anything." They're missing the entire point.
You see, when a rally gets going, it has to begin somewhere. I'll be pretty shocked if we see silver at $15.00/oz again. EVER.
But that's all fine. I made my own purchases at $14.24 and again at $14.66/oz on Halloween of all days, (14.24) and again a few weeks later (14.66).
"Why not just buy gold, then, instead of silver? Why Silver??"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205481-gold-silver-ratio-spikes-highest-level-27-years
the gold:silver ratio is historically HIGH, meaning a "reversion to the mean" trade would be buying silver, not gold, in order to see a higher ROI. On Dec 26th I saw something in the chart pattern that told me it was heading back down...meaning silver is gaining at a faster rate than gold is, which is fairly typical in a rally. It has since sunk a bit more, now at 82.93.
"The ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17.5:1" but the gold/silver ratio is saying "82.93" and in a "bearish" pattern recently.
If still not sold on silver over gold, simply watch the prices over however long you want to wait for higher prices. On an "up day," probably 8 or 9 out of 10 times, silver will be up a higher percentage than gold. This is not a "hard and fast rule," because the gold:silver ratio behaves just like any OTHER chart, with Fibonacci retracements, etc. But the trend is down, and from a VERY VERY HIGH LEVEL historically.
...just imagine if the gold:silver ratio reflected reality...that gold is "only" 17.5 times more rare than silver instead of the 82.93 times currently reflected in pricing, AND silver has MORE industrial uses than gold, but some of that is likely due to the fact that gold IS so expensive relative to silver. Both have intrinsic value, unlike the cryptocurrencies, and a long history that the cryptos lack.
Precious metals have historically BEEN ACTUAL MONEY, no? Both are very good conductors, for one thing. Cryptos, while likely going to make a "bull run" before next election day, there's the additional risk of buying the RIGHT cryptocurrency. "Math" has no intrinsic value although knowing how to USE math has some ethereal "value" I guess. But remember...cryptocurrencies need power, computers, and a functioning internet. The precious metals need none of that, taking THAT "risk" off the table as well.
I'm certainly NOT dissing the cryptos for those of you heavily into them. I do think their time will come, but I think with gold and silver having such a long history, and given the political climate and fears about a possible "6 months of a down power grid" or Q saying "10 days of darkness" (I think it was 10 days - someone can check me on that particular quote)
The upshot of it all is IMO, I think 2019 will be the year of the precious metals. It's even quite possible they'll be in "bubble" territory again, much like back in 2011-2012 when the chart pattern formed a "double top" with a difference of ONLY 90 CENTS. That's pretty much a thing SCREAMING that the top is in when it's that close and over almost exactly a year in-between the two (Sept 15, 2011, and Sept 27, 2012).
...but they will do so at MUCH higher prices. I'm hearing "rumors" that gold could go to $8,000-$10,000 an ounce due to a multitude of factors that all add on to the reason pricing will be so much higher...mainly a dying Petrodollar and Trump's wanting to end the Federal Reserve...which isn't helping/won't help be supportive of the dollar pricing but the precise opposite.
NOW...do your own research of course, but realize a weakening dollar itself is bullish to the markets because it takes more OF the dollars to buy the same thing as before when the dollar's value declines. We've historically seen/heard (at least, I've noticed) politicians always give lip-service to "supporting a strong dollar" while their actions behind the scenes say otherwise. Trump is at least honest in that he wants to END the Fed and go back to a gold standard where the value of a dollar is pegged to some specific weight of gold or silver.
As for me, I used to make a living trading gold and silver (the ETFs) on the markets...futures and options stuff, so I'm well-versed in the technical analysis OF charts, and I'm pleading with fellow Patriots to consider investing in the precious metals pretty much on Monday.
While buying physical silver and gold is safer than trading it, especially in today's manipulated markets (even more so than just the 8-18 years ago I was trading...also traded soybeans, but that's not relevant here), if you're knowledgeable about technical analysis of charts, then you might consider buying a futures contract (at the right technical entry-point, of course) OR SELLING A PUT OPTION, but doing that limits your return while exposing you to unlimited risk, but a very strong, bullish chart like gold & silver recently have shown could be a consideration if you pick a low enough strike price. I still feel we won't see $15/oz silver ever again, but the old saying "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" ALWAYS HOLDS.
Now y'all can't say you haven't been warned or educated or exposed to what's going on. I feel this "precious metals bubble" that (likely) is coming at some point might well transition to the cryptocurrencies once the metals bubble begins to break down. But for the "here and now," it would be a good idea to at least research this and/or getting someone you know who DOES know about technical analysis to take a look at it. With the worlds' central banks buying gold at such a rapid rate in 2018, they're telegraphing what's coming.
Remember...actions speak louder than words.
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16553758? ago
Read you comment in december. And agreed silently. Every patriot should own some ounces of gold and especially silver. Physically. Papergold and Papersilver is not the same. Maybe we will see about 12 or 13 usd per one ounce of silver. Maybe. At the end it will rocket. All papermoney comes back to its true worth = 0. We can see the end of the financial system coming when gold and silver cannot be manipulated down anymore. So buy some coins.
17107925? ago
Looking at the close yesterday, it looks like silver rallies from here or goes back below $15.00 after all. Even here, I think it's a great buying opportunity for those who didn't get in below $14.50 as I did, and I do see that $14.78-ish level as next downside major resistance, other than the "physiological" $15.00/oz support.
Since I don't have my data subscription active for my expen$ive trading software active as I'm not currently "trading" but buying physically, I don't have access to a Fibonacci tool (at least, not without hunting a site that has one I can use for free), but "eyeballing it," it looks like it's real close to a 50% RT. If it is indeed there, and those candle wicks that seem to be supportive of yesterday's lows (within a penny, I think), that just adds to the "energy" needed to continue lower. It could "bounce" then break down. The market is the market and can do what it wants, of course, but this is what I'm seeing with the limited tools I currently have available.
17340952? ago
hi. am wti short now. target 52 usd.
17345943? ago
and GL on the WTI trade...haven't looked myself but will now.
17345931? ago
I'm just in the physical stuff but I bought AGAIN last Thursday at $15.04 I think maybe 15.03 I'll have to look. Didn't get a huge amt, but got Christmas presents...for 2020 LOL!!
If silver is waaay high by Dec 2020 I can always keep the .50 cal (also ordered some silver rounds) and get another good present, just not one worth SO much (assuming it is).
Great buying op with the dollar up today for your "second-chance" on silver before the rally really decides to take off. Gotta figure in the manipulation going away or easing at some point down the road too.
17346643? ago
silver is better skyrocketing now. if not, could fall to about 14,50. But I think there are good chances for a upmove starting soon, maybe tomorrow. As a christmas present 2020 I suppose it is a really good investment. WTI is not looking very bearish at the moment. Need some luck, but I'm short because of my elliottwaves big picture. Maybe upmove finished completely, so we will see less than 10 usd in the future or WTI hits about 52, than rise to about 64 USD and than will crash. That's the plan.
17347838? ago
Remember, the fundamentals change about this time of the year. Do you have access to historical pricing? Here in the US, we have these "summer blends" BS that the refineries have to "change over to" for some places, so that puts upward pressure on prices in general. So there's that.
As for Christmas, yeah I'm not sure if I told you but I got my stepdad a 1-oz .45 cal pistol round silver bullet. Already got in-hand the 2-oz .308 for this Christmas, and just ordered the 10-oz .50-cal for 2020. We'll see how finances are before I give him a 10-oz silver bullet, though! It could be worth $1500 by then! LOL
"Gold will end the Fed" - Q
17364090? ago
Thank you, never heard about this summer and winter blends before. Good to know.
I'm following Greg M. from traderschoice.net |||| twitter.com/GregMannarino ||| youtube.com/watch?v=pLXMiFzMBIM ||| He is following the bonds. Knew before if shorttime bonds went higher than longtime bonds something is in the air. We can see it now. A lot of things are going on behind the curtain. Rumours saying centralbanks buying each others debt. They are in trouble.
I expect the euro to strengthen against the dollar soon, ultimately doubling. This does not mean that the euro will really become stronger, it will only lose value more slowly than the USD. Currencies are like parachutists. It never goes up, it can only go down. With the two parachutists Euro and USD this means that the Euro will fall, but the USD will fall faster. It then looks as if the euro will rise, although in reality it will also fall. It is like an optical illusion.
Meanwhile, I expect oil to fall significantly, oil to crash for the foreseeable future. I don't know what news is needed yet, but I think OPEC will disintegrate and individual members will produce more. Maybe it will finally come out that all the nonsense about peak oil is just another lie. The formation/origination of oil from dead plants under pressure is also a lie. The Russians proved this decades ago. It is much more probable that the earth inside contains almost infinite amounts of oil and gas and that tectonic plate shifts, for example, shake the whole thing up. That's why even oil fields that were supposedly empty are suddenly full again. Because new oil is flushing upwards. I can imagine such kind of “news” to crash the oil price. Then the price of the USD would no longer be so relevant for Oil price. Energy would be much cheaper, consumers would have more money available, the economy (the real economy, not the bubble Fed economy) would benefit. And then we would have the economic basis to destroy the FED without extreme trouble for normal people.
At the same time, the whole global warming (due to CO2) would be definitively refuted, so that oil and coal would be accepted again. At least in Germany they want to abolish coal completely and oil is demonized. Just take a look at this New Green Deal in the USA. In Germany it's the same if it's not much worse. They want to destroy entire industries and above all the middle class. Everything for corporations and corrupt politicians is the motto. If I'm unlucky WTI rises towards USD 62. Hopefully not.** PS: Beautiful story with the Christmas present ;-).**
>>> Silver think impulse-wave 1 ready (4hour-candles), just hit the middle bollinger band/4hours, now bit down, not under 15.09, than up and away.
17376766? ago
As for Bollinger Bands, is it 2 standard deviations distance?
17379052? ago
The Bollinger Bands show me a range and they show me, if there is a resistance or not. But it is only a little help. And sure, there are educational links to EW theory. The problem is they all use different rules. This cannot work. Impossible. I follow a german EW-guy. He is really great. He wrote a book with all the rules. Think, this is the best. Unfortunately only in German language. The basics are easy, I can explain and show you with pictures. The details are extremly difficult. The biggest problem is following the rules you can count correct counts that are very different, sometimes down AND up. So the art ist to have the wright look to see which count is the correct one. Here i show you an example of a count. It is ATX (Austrian Stockmarket-Index).
On the left side you see a finished wave 1 up (Big Red 1) This wave 1 is an impulse wave, every wave 1 is. It's inner structure is wave 1 (impulse) wave 2 (correction, simplified a-b-c) /// Then you see the at the bottom the wave 2. It is an correcture, not an impulse-wave. Every wave 2 is an correcture. It's inner structure simplified is a-b-c. Here it is not a-b-c, it is w-x-y. In principle it is the same, in detail it is more complex, hard to count. When wave 2 (Big RED 2) has finished, wave BIG RED 3 started. You cannot see this RED 3 in the chart. But it's inner structure is again 1-2-3-4-5. The wave 1 of this inner structure is ready, you see the green-blue 1. This green-blue 1 (with again the inner structure 1-2-3-4-5/black numbers) is the wave 1 of the wave BIG RED 3. Then you see the green-blue wave 2. This is the wave 2 of the wave BIG RED 3. The inner structure of this wave two is again a-b-c, a correction, not an impulse. In this case the a-b-c is a w-x-y-x2-z. In principle it is the same as an a-b-c, in detail it is much more complex, and very hard to count. When the green-blue wave 2 has finished, the green-blue wave 3 started. green-blue wave 1 and 2 and 3 are parts of the BIG RED wave 3. The green-blue wave 3 that has started has to be an impulse-wave with the inner structure again 1-2-3-4-5 (in black). So soon there has to be a black wave 2 down. It is forbidden that it goes deeper than the startingpoint of the black wave 1. The wave 2 could reach the Fibonacci levels 38,2 or 50 or 61,80 for example. Then the wave 3 (black hast to start with again the inner structure of an impulse wave / 1-2-3-4-5. I tried to explain it as simple as I can. Did you understand anything? Hope so. However, feel free to ask whatever you like.
17376668? ago
Yeah I probably made the summer blends thing out to b bigger than it really is...some of the larger, northern & western cities that are run by leftists and their "regulations." It's basically just some cities like Milwaukee and others that have to go to it in summer due to more pollution from more driving being done.It sorta IS a big deal but more politically than anything else, and yes, it can cause upward pressure on RBOB for sure as a result but not so sure about any affected on WTI. It would be worth it on your end to research, perhaps, but I suspect you'll find SOME affect but not a huge amount.
Thanks for the info on eht Elliott Waves. I learned about 'em like 20 years ago but I learned that wave 3 was the "Impulse Wave" and usually the strongest but it's been so long...got any educational links on Elliott Wave theory?
Thanks...always enjoy exchanging thoughts with you
17462722? ago
learning elliott. update WTI, am still short, the count. if count is correct (think so) would mean, something BIG will happen soon so that wave 3 down can start.
17464673? ago
Down to $27?? WOW! IF TRUE, without any other input to consider, it would appear an economic collapse is LOOMING for demand for crude to be driven down to prices THAT low. Man...if you're right you'll be rich....
17466306? ago
about 27 would be the end of wave 3. than wave 4 up. than wave 5 down. target of this count is wave 5 down ends @ about 10usd. could take time. but target is target.
17613519? ago
A "Texas Oilman friend" of mine sent me this recently: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Morgan-Stanley-Oil-To-Rise-To-75-This-Summer.html?fbclid=IwAR0a2Orw0-kYLEYZY_wd4yAexLdEHVJWWrTIB1lM_JtQj7WohckDPVcgPro
now...it has to do with FUNDAMENTALS causing prices to go up. That's the sucky thing about technical analysis is no fundamentals figured in and that can (and does) move markets. I've always said use fundamentals to pick direction and technicals to pick your spots.
That said, if we do have an economic meltdown worldwide, I could see crude at $22/bl IF the malaise is bad enough...it would have to be pretty doggone bad for $22/bl oil!
17755438? ago
Thank you. I'm following oilprice.com and I know Tsvetana Paraskova, she is really an expert with own ideas and understanding.
Check again the count (.gif) I posted above. We have seen a wave 1 down. So next big move will be a wave 3 down. Before this wave 3 down we actually see a wave 2 up. This wave 2 up has to be a wave with the inner structure wave A up, wave B down and wave C up. The rules say it is allowed that this wave 2 up reaches nearly the top of the starting point of the wave 1 down (76,79 usd), an up-correction of 99,99 % is allowed. The fibonacci retracements (RT) are RT 38,2% = 55,70usd // RT 50 % = 59,73usd // RT 61,8 % = 63,75usd.
Now we are at 60,70 usd. Depending on Elliott-Waves what will happen next? We are still in the wave 2 up. The time for wave 1 down was from October 3rd. 2018 (@76,79 usd) to December 26th 2018. Nearly 3 months. The same time period of 3 months for the wave 2 up was over on March 20th 2019. Because of this timeline I expect that the wave 2 up is nearly finish.
Remember: The inner structure of this wave 2 up has to be A-B-C. So I think we do NOT see the wave A of this wave 2 up. Because than a wave B down an wave C up would follow. Would take again 3 months or more, maybe 6 months. If you ask me. too much time.
Normally the wave 2 up should end somewhere betwean the Fibonacci-Retracements 50 % and 61,8 %. We are in this range now. So WTI maybe will reach 62 USD, than will go down. For this expected coming downmove there are two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Downmove as a wave B down as a part of wave two up. Or Downmove as a wave 3 down, in the case the wave 2 up would be complete finish.
My favourite scenario is scenario 2. The OPEC is think is not able anymore to speek with one voice. I think it will end sooner or later. Especially the OPEC +, which includes Russia. So I think the brake for producing levels will fale. Some will produce more. Some will try to pay Oil with Gold instead of USD.
Take a look at this (geopolitical) article: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/New-Middle-East-Alliance-Shakes-World-Powers.html /// So I#M still speculative short on oilprice. We will see what will happen ...
17898838? ago
Just thought I'd share this tidbit with you:
I think you know I've been buying physical precious metals (silver) but have been looking at the others. Rhodium is simply out of my price range at north of $3,000 per ounce, plus with such a small, narrow market, they don't even post a "sell to us" price so I avoid it anyway.
However, if you'll go look at a 5-year chart on Platinum, you'll see we just came off some lows and the price has been rallying recently quite hard. However, last week, the price rallied and closed above a double-top from just previous months. I think Thursday had a doji and Friday had a spinning top (japanese candlestick types) but the price HELD juuust above a well-established "common number" which was both support in some instances and resistance in others. It closed just a few dollars above, but enough such that it looked like it was going to hold, so I jumped in.
Platinum is up over 1.5% today, so it looks good. The Palladium chart tells me not to mess with it at all, so SILVER it is...and a teeny bit of platinum just because it's so cheap relative to gold historically I think it's a nice buy. If "gold ends the fed," I won't be rich but I'll be outta debt!
17773226? ago
oh, and yes, world economies are slowing down. The US is doing better than most, but we're showing lots of cracks in the foundation....Trump and the Fed at odds again, and Trump (so far) has successfully put the economy on the Fed's shoulders over time. Once awake (as we are), it's EASY to see the plan...the Fed was gonna keep raising rates to choke the economy into recession in 2020 to get Trump out of office, but Trump called 'em on the carpet about it a number of times publicly and has raised public awareness now about the correlation.When I was young and naive, I'd see that the Fed would always "overshoot" things as it takes 12-18 months for interest rate changes to fully be felt and is a "blunt instrument" as I say. NOW, I see through it to the POLITICS behind it, as it is everywhere anymore, to the detriment of the truth.
I could see very low oil prices if the world economy keeps heading the way it seems to be heading. No demand to run factories; no demand for the juice to run the equipment and fewer "Car trips" for people, etc.
17773093? ago
the key in metals is to keep an eye on gold, though. $1280.80 is the key support level there, I think.
17773084? ago
Yeah I was just thinking of the problems in Venezuela especially and some in Mexico messing with production lately, keeping prices up. Trump's been telling OPEC to lower prices. Funny, I recall when OPEC had all the cards (70's and 80's) but not anymore.
I see silver back under $15/oz and was thinking since the middle of last week after the price bounced off $15 we might have a "Trump Put" there, but now we're back to testing that support at ~ $14.95-$14.97 area. Other than the "Trump Put" idea, my "feeling" right now is that silver could well slide and close under $15 this week sometime and might even go down to the $14.18 area eventually, but I consider it "second chance pricing." I have been buying a little here and there when the prices dip to around that $15.00/oz level and wouldn't mind having lower prices for a few months for me to be able to stock up even more before it takes off for good.
I sorta/kinda wanna get all the "silver bullet" rounds...1oz, 2oz, 10oz, and 25oz. The 5 oz ones are shotgun shells and every bit as ugly as the real ones so I was gonna skip that one lol...just not sure I can afford the "luxury" of the extra premium and the odd form of silver bullets. I wouldn't sell 'em I'd probably keep 'em, but they'd tarnish too, so I dunno.
It just seems the metals want to weaken to me. LOTS of economic headwinds, but the gold:silver ratio is historically high at 86-something, which is screaming to buy silver over gold. We'll see. Metals still may not really rally hard until next year, but if that means I can buy another couple hundred ounces or whatever, so much the better. I guess it all depends on how much of this "Deep State" stuff gets uncovered and Trump's success pushing the Fed around....already has gotten them not to raise rates at least until 2020, and Larry Kudlow is hollering about a 50 bpa CUT IMMEDIATELY. So, there's downward pressure on metals it looks like in the short term, now that Trump's been exonerated....thus, my Trump Put idea. We'll see. It bounced back off $14.97 just now and rallied a dime, but as you know, support can break at any given time. The market is how the market is.
17466482? ago
...it would also mean gold/silver likely will skyrocket.
17466471? ago
Yup, the target is the target, all I'm saying is oil THAT low would very likely be the crash coming up. Gas in the USA under a dollar a gallon hasn't been since the early 1980's.