I made this statement on Dec 26th here:
https://voat.co/v/QRV/2935537/
I was amazed it drew such little interest, given the political and financial instability in recent years.
CNBC's Carter Worth said the same, but a week LATER if you look at the date on the video IN THE VIDEO ITSELF; he called it on Dec 31st:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/01/technician-who-called-the-gold-rally-now-sees-this-for-the-metal.html
Then just the other day, it was reported that central banks around the world have bought gold in 2018 at a higher rate than they have in the last half-century:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/world-gold-council-central-banks-buy-most-gold-since-1967-.html
I guess I didn't make myself clear enough when I said "Buy silver NOW at $15.00/oz." I meant BUY IT NOW. I got a comment or two about "not wanting to buy a 'spike' in anything." They're missing the entire point.
You see, when a rally gets going, it has to begin somewhere. I'll be pretty shocked if we see silver at $15.00/oz again. EVER.
But that's all fine. I made my own purchases at $14.24 and again at $14.66/oz on Halloween of all days, (14.24) and again a few weeks later (14.66).
"Why not just buy gold, then, instead of silver? Why Silver??"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205481-gold-silver-ratio-spikes-highest-level-27-years
the gold:silver ratio is historically HIGH, meaning a "reversion to the mean" trade would be buying silver, not gold, in order to see a higher ROI. On Dec 26th I saw something in the chart pattern that told me it was heading back down...meaning silver is gaining at a faster rate than gold is, which is fairly typical in a rally. It has since sunk a bit more, now at 82.93.
"The ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17.5:1" but the gold/silver ratio is saying "82.93" and in a "bearish" pattern recently.
If still not sold on silver over gold, simply watch the prices over however long you want to wait for higher prices. On an "up day," probably 8 or 9 out of 10 times, silver will be up a higher percentage than gold. This is not a "hard and fast rule," because the gold:silver ratio behaves just like any OTHER chart, with Fibonacci retracements, etc. But the trend is down, and from a VERY VERY HIGH LEVEL historically.
...just imagine if the gold:silver ratio reflected reality...that gold is "only" 17.5 times more rare than silver instead of the 82.93 times currently reflected in pricing, AND silver has MORE industrial uses than gold, but some of that is likely due to the fact that gold IS so expensive relative to silver. Both have intrinsic value, unlike the cryptocurrencies, and a long history that the cryptos lack.
Precious metals have historically BEEN ACTUAL MONEY, no? Both are very good conductors, for one thing. Cryptos, while likely going to make a "bull run" before next election day, there's the additional risk of buying the RIGHT cryptocurrency. "Math" has no intrinsic value although knowing how to USE math has some ethereal "value" I guess. But remember...cryptocurrencies need power, computers, and a functioning internet. The precious metals need none of that, taking THAT "risk" off the table as well.
I'm certainly NOT dissing the cryptos for those of you heavily into them. I do think their time will come, but I think with gold and silver having such a long history, and given the political climate and fears about a possible "6 months of a down power grid" or Q saying "10 days of darkness" (I think it was 10 days - someone can check me on that particular quote)
The upshot of it all is IMO, I think 2019 will be the year of the precious metals. It's even quite possible they'll be in "bubble" territory again, much like back in 2011-2012 when the chart pattern formed a "double top" with a difference of ONLY 90 CENTS. That's pretty much a thing SCREAMING that the top is in when it's that close and over almost exactly a year in-between the two (Sept 15, 2011, and Sept 27, 2012).
...but they will do so at MUCH higher prices. I'm hearing "rumors" that gold could go to $8,000-$10,000 an ounce due to a multitude of factors that all add on to the reason pricing will be so much higher...mainly a dying Petrodollar and Trump's wanting to end the Federal Reserve...which isn't helping/won't help be supportive of the dollar pricing but the precise opposite.
NOW...do your own research of course, but realize a weakening dollar itself is bullish to the markets because it takes more OF the dollars to buy the same thing as before when the dollar's value declines. We've historically seen/heard (at least, I've noticed) politicians always give lip-service to "supporting a strong dollar" while their actions behind the scenes say otherwise. Trump is at least honest in that he wants to END the Fed and go back to a gold standard where the value of a dollar is pegged to some specific weight of gold or silver.
As for me, I used to make a living trading gold and silver (the ETFs) on the markets...futures and options stuff, so I'm well-versed in the technical analysis OF charts, and I'm pleading with fellow Patriots to consider investing in the precious metals pretty much on Monday.
While buying physical silver and gold is safer than trading it, especially in today's manipulated markets (even more so than just the 8-18 years ago I was trading...also traded soybeans, but that's not relevant here), if you're knowledgeable about technical analysis of charts, then you might consider buying a futures contract (at the right technical entry-point, of course) OR SELLING A PUT OPTION, but doing that limits your return while exposing you to unlimited risk, but a very strong, bullish chart like gold & silver recently have shown could be a consideration if you pick a low enough strike price. I still feel we won't see $15/oz silver ever again, but the old saying "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" ALWAYS HOLDS.
Now y'all can't say you haven't been warned or educated or exposed to what's going on. I feel this "precious metals bubble" that (likely) is coming at some point might well transition to the cryptocurrencies once the metals bubble begins to break down. But for the "here and now," it would be a good idea to at least research this and/or getting someone you know who DOES know about technical analysis to take a look at it. With the worlds' central banks buying gold at such a rapid rate in 2018, they're telegraphing what's coming.
Remember...actions speak louder than words.
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16553758? ago
Read you comment in december. And agreed silently. Every patriot should own some ounces of gold and especially silver. Physically. Papergold and Papersilver is not the same. Maybe we will see about 12 or 13 usd per one ounce of silver. Maybe. At the end it will rocket. All papermoney comes back to its true worth = 0. We can see the end of the financial system coming when gold and silver cannot be manipulated down anymore. So buy some coins.
16554107? ago
you are exactly right on that. The only reason I mentioned the ETFs is because those are the vehicles you use IF you wanna play futures and options. I don't personally recommend it, and I posted that I bought the physical metal, too. I will be surprised if silver goes back below $15/oz, ever, but if it does, it should be brief and part of a pretty deep Fibonacci retracement, but it could happen. I've learned the axiom about markets being able to be irrational longer than you're able to stay solvent, but I think the world central banks' record buying of gold in 2018 - the most of any year since 1967 - tells the tale. If those folks are buying it? We should too.
Obviously, the trolls on that thread don't know "You can't Fight the Fed" either, and they VOTE in actual ELECTIONS!
16565401? ago
of all analysis i prefer Elliott Waves. BigPicture counts say: --------------- GOLD: shortterm up to 1403.00 +xxx. Than we will see if there will be a last "sell off" with target @ 1,000 usd or in extreme about 700 usd. In both cases first big target upside would be 15,123 usd. --------------- SILVER: the same. shortterm up to 23.15 usd. Than we will see if there will be a last "sell off" with target @ 10.80 usd or in extreme about 7.50 usd. In both cases first big target upside would be 115 usd. ------------- EUR/USD: shortterm maybe down to 1.10 or in extreme down to 1.02. In both cases big target upside would be 2.08 --------- For me this means: "Real World" also will change in relevant way. Thank you for your answer and good luck.
16570351? ago
I know a bit about Elliott waves as well. Are you talking about the impulse wave, wave 3? I just don't have updated software as there's no reason for me to pay for a subscription when I'm not trading paper stuff just physical, and as I'm in balls deep in silver at an average of about $14.50.
On the metals, I think there's a "Trump Put" under the prices due to his war on the Fed. Lowest price in the last 10+ years is $13.46-ish.
The problem with Elliott Wave theory here is the fundamentals are soooo different than usual, as we've always had a "stable" Federal Reserve, such as it is anyway, and the Trump Put is there due to that pressure he's bringing on TO the Fed over interest rate hikes and choking the economic upturn. I think he's done a good job of awakening the public as to how they work. For one thing, when's the last time the Fed "predicted an economic downturn?" It's not their jobs. They have a "dual mandate" and neither is economic prognostication but rather the OTHER end...controlling the money supply and inflation, but as the 2008 crash proved, they have almost no "say" in how the economy actually DOES because they can only pass money out. They cannot make you spend it, so they have no control over the velocity of money. With Trump's pressure and the Fed under the microscope, the beauty of it all is Trump doesn't even have to necessarily succeed in displacing the Federal Reserve for the metals to rally...he just has to frighten enough people that buy the metals to cause prices to rise.
I appreciate the Elliott Wave stuff. I REALLY do, and thank you for reminding me of it. We're pretty obviously in a Wave 1 right now and as I see leaps up in pricing, I keep expecting that Fib RT and it really hasn't come yet...at least, nothing deep like a 62. I will have to disagree on your thinking of the lows; the Fed and others are who actually made me START thinking of buying the metals because last year I noticed sooooo many people talking down gold and silver as "passe'" or "yesterday," etc., and if I have learned one damned thing in my life, it's to listen to the powerful in government on the left, hang on every word, and assume the exact OPPOSITE of what they say to actually BE true. This served me incredibly well under the Obama administration and seems to get increasingly pertinent recently.
I know exactly what they were doing...they were trying to "talk down" prices so they could buy it at low prices. If that ain't pre-school economics, I don't know what is, ya know? But talk talk talk talk beat beat beat, and they could NOT break that 9-year low of $13.46-ish I mentioned in silver, and I'm sure you are aware that silver is generally more volatile than is gold, as it has the much smaller market cap and is easier to push around, but you can only do so much because it will not decouple from gold.
The other issue with the lows you talk about is it would push the entire market into bear territory and I just don't see that happening when I look at the fundamentals and having seen the assault on the metals last year.
ALLLL that said, I appreciate your input and you could well be correct. That's the thing about markets I keep saying...they can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I'm likely going to "trade physical silver," BUT, I'm going to have to be really smart about it because of the bid:offer differences and commissions, but I'm already "up" a couple of hundred bucks on my physical purchases if I turned around and sold 'em right back to where I bought 'em from today, but I'd have to see a nice high followed by more weakness than I expect for me to sell them anytime soon. Barring a change in fundamentals, and a pretty severe one, I just can't picture silver falling so far as you suggest it might, but again, anything can happen. We're talking about Human Psychology here, so markets are never all that "rational" to begin with, no?
Lastly, and this is an "axiom" I came up with some 15 years ago to describe markets, and I think it's rather profound if I may say so myself: "The markets are NOT a reflection of reality. They are a reflection of the PERCEPTION OF reality."
I appreciate your thoughts. It's nice to chat with an intelligent person who doesn't find a page and a half "too long to read" before forming a strong opinion. I'd give real money to watch these commenting clowns attacking me try to trade! LOL
16584785? ago
excuse my bad english. Yes, I expect wave 3 up in Gold with its target @ about 5,400. Wave 1 has finished. Actually we are in the wave 2 down with a inner structure a down b up and c down. Maybe wave 3 started alternative would be we are still in wave 2 down. So wave 3 up has already started or will start. Than followed by corrective wave 4, that will need time (maybe one year or two). The following wave 5 up should be the longest wave with target in the sky because in commodities normally wave 5 is the longest. Target would be 15,123 (maybe much more). In stock markets normally wave 3 is the longest wave.
From my point of view fundamental dates are not really interesting for elliottwaves. They are following the ever repeating internal structure 1-2-3-4-5 in every time fractal (minute, hour, day and so on, it’s a kind of law of nature). Always there are alternative counts, so most important is the correct look, so you chose the correct alternative. So i use fundamentals an logical thinking to find the correct alternative of possible waves.
For speculation I prefer a) long-knock-out certificates with small money and b) silver miners which – if you ask me - will outperform silver price. Actually 1 ounce Meaple Leaf buy is € 16.84 sell is € 15.99. Physical Gold/Silber I prefer buy-and-hold-strategy. Don’t see it as a speculation, see it as an investment and as a hedge against inflation. Not talking about the official inflationrates, talking about that most important goods. For example energy. Electricity in Germany nearly doubled since year 2000. Petrol/motor sprit was about € 1.00 in year 2000, actually is @ € 1.45 / plus 45 %. Very important is that you buy Gold/Silver coins anonymously so the state cannot get it. They try to rise taxes everywhere for example for house owners. Possible that they would try in crises to impound/encross private gold and silver. It should't be stored at a bank because you would't ask a robber to take care of your money/gold. In crises I expect state (in Germany) will install an judgment creditor's mortgage on houses so you have to pay again for your own house you paid before. Generally and finally I expect the end of our financial system including the end of USD. Last time we see this in Germany was in the year 1923 with hyperinflation. One USD was worth 4,200,000,000,000 Reichsmark. For only one egg you had to pay 320,000,000,000 Reichsmark. Here you can see what I’m talking about: http://grandfather-economic-report.com/inflation.htm (in 1950s 30 us-cents buy a Ham Salad Sandwich).
I think increase of the interest rate isn’t bad for rising gold/silver-prices. Because with increase of the interest rate there has to be more new debts to pay the interest so new and more debts has to be made. Then we have more money in the system. Good for goldprice. Most important to understand I think is that rising goldprice means not necessarithe rising worth of gold. Normally worth of one ounce should ever be the same. But rising goldprice means that USD is worth less and less. So there’s a difference between price and worth. In times of crisis not only the price of Gold will raise also its worth. All the shit with paper money as a basic of todays FED was the founding of Bank of England (in 1694?). FED is a criminal organisation, we know. There will be an audit, should be very interesting and there is also a bill to define the USD with a new goldstandard. So a lot of things are in move. And all the papermoney is based on faith/confidence/reliance, raising goldprices are an indicator that this is to be lost. We also should know that The importance of Switzerland for the international gold trade can hardly be overestimated. More than two thirds of global gold refining is carried out by companies such as PAMP Suisse, Valcambi, and Argor Heraeus in the Alpine Republic.
I totally agree: "The markets are NOT a reflection of reality. They are a reflection of the PERCEPTION OF reality.". Very good!
I like this site because of good overview: https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=m1 / I’m following the seasonal charts: https://charts.equityclock.com/silver-futures-si-seasonal-chart If you like check wti-chart. In long-term, I think, we can expect bearish market with target smaller than 30 usd, maybe 10 usd. Before we wouldn’t reach the highest level of 2019 again. It’s possible that we see the end of wti up-move soon @ about 56 usd. So wti is a top candidate for watchlist short in my eyes. All in all I think Gold and Silver are the main investors chance of a century.
16587953? ago
Interesting. I had learned some 25 years ago that wave 3 was the "Impulse Wave" and carried the most energy, but I defer to you on Elliott Waves. I use fundamentals to pick direction and technicals to pick the spots, to be brief, or at least I did when I was trading.
My issue with miners is the added layer of risk exposure to things any company would face....management issues, labor issues, equipment costs, all that stuff, so playing the metals themselves takes that risk away. I guess for THAT, it's all dependent upon your risk tolerance, but I'm sure the right miner pick could well outperform the base metals but again, it's a riskier play too. Nothing's free.
As for your explanation of Elliot waves/fractals, yup, same sorta idea with Fibonacci charts...certain things/patterns recur in nature.
For physical silver I bought, yes, I'm holding that and am the same as you - because of the premiums and commissions involved. I'm "in" roughly at a dollar cost average o $14.50 per ounce and if I sold everything right back, I'd make a small amount of profit at these levels of trading. Looking to sell in the "bubble" if/when it occurs.
Yes, gold/silver and the USD have an inverse correlation since it's priced IN USD. Dollar's worth less, takes more dollars to buy the same thing. That's the definition of inflation. I'm aware of the bill redefining the dollar as some weight in gold, but it'll never pass the House, for one thing.
I'm glad you like the phrase I coined...(see what I did there? "coined?" :D)
What do you mean by "WTI?" Here in the USA, "WTI" means "West Texas Intermediate" referring to oil.
As for gold/silver being a possible investment chance of a century, I totally agree...especially if Trump somehow ends the Fed and goes back to a gold standard. We should see gold/silver gap waaaay the heck up if that happens. It would be nice if I could turn my silver investment into a paid mortgage on my house!
I appreciate your thoughts, and your English is better than a lot of native-speakers here in the USA, so you're fine there, friend.
The only thing I don't agree with was your earlier statement that Silver could go down to $10 or even $7.50. I just don't see it, barring a MASSIVE change in fundamentals, and given the fact that Central Banks around the world bought the metals at a bigger rate than they had in the last 51 years tells me we're looking at much, much HIGHER prices down the road...not lower ones.
16589082? ago
Hahaha. coined/geschürft is really good. I'm fine with my english? Ok :-). Silver possibly down to 10 usd is (only) an alternative (depending on elliotwaves) we should have in mind. Would also mean all Trump, Q, Deepstate stuff would take a much longer time than we expect(ed). Yes, WTI, oil I'm talking about. Strong watchlist short. Miners bought three, know the risks you mentioned. The deal is: Two bancrupts would be accepted, not less than one has to rallye. Copied the URL of our dialogue, so that I can find you to stay in contact.
16592798? ago
Excellent. I marked the pages you mentioned about the charts on my end. Thanks for the clarification about the $10 silver. I had decent success using the Fibonacci tools, myself. The problem with trading is that it literally takes a lot of money to MAKE money. Options are tough due to the time decay factor, and outright futures are expensive due to the exposure and leverage involved. If we have a precious metals bubble and someone has, say, 1,000 oz of silver (I don't - just easy illustration) getting in at $15 (price on Dec 26 when I made my original "call"), I'm just wondering what a realistic profit would be but each dollar gain in price is a thousand dollar gain looked at that way. I've heard "rumors" of $180-$200/oz. Call it $165 to be conservative and easy math (165-15=150) $150K profit would be nice, but it would probably have to get switched over to BitCoin or something pretty soon afterward! Please do stay in touch. :)