Here we go...dollar finally starting to plunge; spot gold at $1299 looking to close above $1300 resistance while silver is up again to 15.66/oz on the spot market.
Much more dollar weakness at all, and we'll be headed toward $1365 gold soon.
Folks, As I said the day after Christmas, LOAD THE WAGON!
...Once gold hits $1300, silver takes off again, I think. Silver's seeing a lot of resistance that used to be support a couple of years ago, so it needs to be "pulled" up by gold, which has the far larger market cap. When spot silver closes above $15.70, look out above. Both gold and silver seem to somehow give me the impression of a helium balloon hitting and bouncing off the ceiling. Sky's the limit, and so is the floor, so I just think it's a GREAT risk/reward thing going especially in the longer term like a couple of years or so....
...btw the "last straw" causing me to post this was the gold/silver ratio breaking down. That's what told me a rally was beginning. Silver gets pushed around by gold, and generally falls faster than gold in a bear market, and rising more quickly in a bull market. It's the more "volatile" of the two, being the MUCH smaller market. I'm just playing the historical trends, but had no idea the reaction would be so sudden as well as so strong. Silver rallied about $1.50 in less than a month, and was up about 10% in the last 30 days. Not a bad ROI for a month, I'd say!
....looks like a 50% fib RT will take it back down to about $14.60-$14.65 or so, should that happen, as a retracement off the 200 DMA, but as always, we have to let the market tell us what it wants to do. I'm just seeing a nice window of opportunity closing now, in absence of a nice Fibonacci retracement that hasn't (yet) come. I'm assuming it will, but the old saying is that the markets can stay irrational longer than an investor can stay solvent. That's why I like the physical metal thing...it's not some time-dependent, leveraged contract like the futures markets are and, thus, a lot less financial pressure on you during short-term price swings.
Yup. Stay FAAAAAAR away from the SLV ETF. I bought 500 oz of just the metal with the lowest premium and commisions I could find. Sometimes it's 90% junk silver; sometimes it's 100 oz o 1000 oz bars, but ideally I'd have both....the bigger bars for taking profits off of and the junk silver to keep around for possible SHTF "barter" situations. That's the beauty of physical gold or silver is that EVERYONE knows that it has intrinsic value, unlike the cryptos. "Math" has no intrinsic value....knowing how to USE math does, but it's not something you can put a number on. Yet, the crypto market attempts to do just that, and it's the volatility that frightens me there.
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Looks like Silver wants to break out...the high is $15.60 today, and if can close above about $15.56 or so, looks like the 200 DMA will be in the rear-view.
aaaHAAaaaa I see why silver doesn't wanna go above $15.39 now.
On 6 Nov 2014, looking at a 5-yr silver chart, silver's local low was $15.39. Support becomes resistance on the way back up sometimes, and on the way down in that leg, silver had a 17-cent range where it bounced off prices from $15.39-$15.56 several times before breaking out to the downside at that point. Silver's had a nice, quick run-up so far but we'll see what gold does. If it continues to rally, silver might still hesitate for a short time before following, but follow it always does, and would whip-saw up FAST when it does.
For those of you interested and are risk-averse but don't still want some sort of leverage, this would be where you look at options, subject to pricing. I'd bet off the top of my head that gold/silver options are rather expensive right now, but might be worth looking into. ALWAYS seek the help of a pro when doing this if you're not 100% certain of all the factors involved.
Silver is up 4% in the last 3 days, which is quite a nice run in a short time. Looks to be running out of steam a bit, but part of that is getting close to the 200 DMA. We'll see, but I still think it'll bounce back down from the 200 DMA, gather, then blast through. It's a normal phase of trading where the "weak longs/specs" get out at certain places, and just before resistance is usually where it is. Then they jump back in once the resistance is cleared.
As Q says, "Future proves past." We'll see how it goes.
Since bonds are historically one path of the "flight to safety," and the bond markets are actually showing divergence, it tells me that SOME demand for bonds won't be there and it'll shift to OTHER "safe havens" like....the metals.
The metals...gold & silver and to a lesser extent, platinum and palladium are where scared investors generally go...there, or just to cash...Since palladium is used in catalytic converters, it has industrial uses and has actually recently hit all-time highs so that's out. Platinum is far less of a liquid market than gold & silver, so that's out. That leaves gold & silver. Silver's price has been outperforming that of gold lately, for reasons I've already covered, so it would seem to be the one to pick.
....if you scroll down to look at the 5-year chart, you'll see a "double bottom" at around that $13.50 level. It's the 3rd chart from the top, just off the bottom of the screen as you look at the page.
Historically, the longer the time period over which support has held, the stronger the support it is. When it's been tested TWICE at the same point and held, that support is even stronger. I'm thinking that the price will go up to a fibonacci level, calculated between 13.50 and the highs of ~ $20 (see how "round numbers" like to be support/resistance? That's a function of Human Psychology)? You take that $6.50 (the trading range) and multiply it by several fibonacci numbers to get potential shorter-term price targets, where the price, if rallying, will likely bounce off in the short-term due TO profit-taking, those will be the levels to look for the rally fading, consolidating, before heading yet higher.
I've seen in bullish markets, that the 62% level is often "resistance" in a rally. Doing the math, 6.50 x .618 (the actual fib number there) then adding it to the $13.50 level (the bottom of the range where the calculation is), you get a price target of about $17.52. $17.50 seems like another "natural" spot for Human Psychology to feel could be a barrier, so I'm looking for silver to rally to about $17.50 if it can clear the 200 DMA at around $15.48.
If you're a futures trader, as of right now, I'd say buy on a close above the 200 DMA and sell at $17.45.
Let's see how this works out (or not) in the future with the prices, and if I'm right or not. But my point is I see silver and gold rallying quite a bit in the very near-term.
correction for precision: $20.60-ish was the actual high, so move that price target with the .618 fib level to $17.88. I'd probably be a seller at $17.74 if I had a futures contract deep in the money right there.
Also, even if silver doesn't close above $15/oz today (likely due to profit-taking on the part of the short-term traders' speculation), I'd say a 2% gain or so in a day is QUITE the nice price rise. Here's a chart for those of you who haven't been following things. It's a 1-year chart, and CLEARLY shows the current rises in price are hardly...."spikes" or "highs."
One thing I want to emphasize is that I'm not a "pro" at this currently, but have been in the past. Please just consider me "more knowledgeable than most," but certainly not ALL. Talk to an investment person you TRUST about it before making a decision.
I'm simply sharing my own observations and my current "feeling" about it, and historically, I'm usually more right than wrong when I see certain things.
If you're looking to make that ~ 40 cents between the current price and the 200 DMA, leveraged into thousands of dollars if correct, then you buy a long futures contract.
If you're looking to "buy and hold" so you're NOT leveraged to feel heat on minor price drops, and are thinking silver (or gold, really, for silver gets pushed around BY gold) will continue to rise in general in 2019, that's when you buy physical metals.
It's been trading between $14-$20/oz for the past 9 or so years, with brief hiccups below but a floor at $13.53 (I call it $13.50). It recently has been under attack, which you'll see if you look at a longer-term chart of say a couple of years or more, so what I did was literally "buy the dip," but that "dip" was what lasted the past 2 months and prices have now returned to the LOWER end of the trading range.
I'm of the mind it has a "Trump put" beneath it, holding prices above that $13.50 level because of all the infighting between Trump and the Federal Reserve. IF we go back to a gold-backed currency, even buying the unleveraged metals via physical delivery to literally "hold," again, do your own research into the higher end of price estimates. I've heard on silver anywhere between $80 and $200 per ounce, should that happen. Your ultimate price target is something only you can decide upon, but I think it's (relatively) safe to think that entering the market at $15/oz or so, you'll be exposed to about the $1.50/oz to the downside (to that $13.50 level) but the UPSIDE? I LOVE the potential risk/reward on this one.
Yup, even today...it was above $15/oz, dropped to test it, bounced higher, traded higher, has re-tested the $15 mark again today, then bounced higher again. Of particular note is on the second bounce, the low was a higher low than just the previous bounce a few hours before. I'm seeing the silver market SCREAMING that it wants to rally in a big way. It's free advice, so take it for what you paid for it, but PLEASE, folks...if you're looking at the metals, better look fast...
I take it you mean "will it rise as much as gold will?" since gold is like literally 100 times silver's price. The answer to that would be to look at the gold/silver ratio. I realize THIS time, you might/might not throw thousands of years of price history out the window, but also realize that gold's market cap is FAR superior to that of silver, thus, silver gets dragged around with the price action of its big brother. That said, the gold/silver ratio is high right now, historically, and I THINK (emphasis b/c it's my OPINION only) silver will rise faster than gold percentage-wise. Look at several days' worth of trading to get a feel for it. Gold is up today 0.14% and silver is up today 2.19%. Do the math.
200 day MA is around $15.48-ish, so that's the next test, assuming it closes above $15/oz today, which it looks as if it will...has been bouncing off $15/oz to the upside so it looks like it doesn't wanna close below $15, but we'll know in a few hours. Even if not, that 200 DMA is the more important resistance. Watch that price action if you're a gold/silver bug (I'm not in general, but am currently), it does look as if it wants to make a run upward. It's bounced off of about $13.50-ish (I think the low of the past 9 or so years is 13.53) a couple of times, and more recently, we've seen higher highs and higher lows, especially in the last couple of months. While I'm no "CFP," I used to TRADE gold and silver (and soybeans but...who buys soybeans in a "flight to safety?" lol) on the exchanges, and I'm well-versed in technical analysis. The technicals are either all positive or turning that way. The fundamentals have a "put" under the price, I'm assuming at that $13.50 level, for various reasons but one huge one is the fact it costs more to get the stuff outta the ground than current prices, so production is relatively low and supportive of prices on the supply side.
Lastly, hard assets are popular in a fading economic cycle. I think Trump's "rumors" AHEM of a war with the Fed will send prices much higher down the road, but that part's conjecture, of course. I just wanted to share the info, since I'd been waiting for not just a good PRICE for entrance, but a better chart structure/technicals to go more positive before I made my own purchases...five 100-oz bars...so I put my money where my mouth is already. I got in at $14.24/oz, once the market had recently been testing the lows and bounced off yet again.
If you've been thinking about it, NOW IS THE TIME to take a SERIOUS long look at the metals. I chose silver because of several reasons, but long story short THERE is the gold/silver ratio is historically high and that generally means the ratio will start shrinking again, meaning silver prices rise faster than gold prices.
This is my own PSA to the anons. I know many are more into cryptos, and while I'm sure the potential for profit is higher there, it is FAR too volatile for my tastes, but if you're into it....I do know those are pretty low too, so maybe pick a few of your own faves, research those, and hop in for the ride.
Seriously, if you look at a chart with a time horizon of a couple of years or more, you'll see quite easily that we're certainly in no "high or spike" right now, rather, simply coming OUT of a dip. With all the Trump/Fed bickering, the Fed tried to drive prices down past support levels, but were not successful. Tells me there's a "Trump Put" or a "Fed Put" under silver at around the $13.50 level I had previously mentioned. It's ALL in the risk/reward.
It's not a high, it's simply relatively high over the past couple of months. It's still below the 200 day moving average, so it's no "high" or "spike." Over the last two months, perhaps you can call it that, but when you buy physical metals, your time horizon is generally longer than just a couple of months. It's showing strength, which is when you buy with some confidence.
any number of online places. I've had great rapport with the people at https://the-moneychanger.com/ and https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver -- but it's all up to you. The main thing to look for, other than a good, honest history with their customers of course, is the premium you have to pay over spot prices. Generally speaking, it depends on the size of the order, but it'll tell you in that second link exactly what the premium is on various lot sizes. I'm just looking for whatever the lowest premium is because I'm looking just for silver content. Mostly the bars or the rounds & especially the 90% junk silver coins have lower premiums than coins do.
You're welcome. PLEASE realize I'm no REAL "expert" on this, just an old trader who has seemed to have a decent feel for the metals markets over the years. No, I'm not always right (dang would I be rich lol), but I'm generally pretty good at timing. It's up another 23 cents today, or 1.5% while gold is up 0.69%. Silver outperformed gold yesterday, too, and it (IMHO) goes BACK to that gold/silver ratio being high, in terms of historical pricing. One poster said they lie gold bc it's The Metal, and gold has a lot more value and less mined than silver....all of which are true. However, as contrarian as it might seem, silver has the higher potential for profit as the price action the past two days that I just mentioned illustrates.
If I were looking at silver, I'm not sure if I'd buy here or if I'd wait to see how the price action reacts when it encounters the 200 DMA which is, again, at about $15.48 or within a few pennies of that figure. I'm betting it'll bounce off (profit-taking), gather itself, then explode upward through it, not to look back for quite a while. The key thing, however, is to remember that when you buy physical metal, you're looking at a longer-haul type of trade as opposed to the shorter-term...that's what the futures market is for.
I hope all this stuff helps someone, and so far so good in my call, but its only been a couple of days. We'll see how things pan out. I'd always recommend talking to a CFP or other pro about it, someone who has no direct financial interest in you when you ask. Some will talk it up just trying to get a commission, but if you get 'em talking well, you can usually tell after a minute or two if they're a straight shooter or just trying to "ring up a sale."
Oh, you're quite welcome! I'm just trying to do my part to carry my weight in all of this, and if it means blabbing the dry details of what I've been seeing and thinking about, and sharing the info with my fellow patriots I'm glad to do it. I just noticed I'm $6 away from "break even" on my lower-priced purchase and $36 away from it on the second one, which I've not even received in the mail yet, but it would be so cool if it's pricier to sell back to where I got it from, including commissions factored in, the moment I take the shipment in. But I'll be fine so long as the price hikes above say $16/oz and does its gyrations but leaving me with profit no matter what it wants to do on a given day price-wise. The reason for me going into so much detail was to help others have the info in one spot, and let them decide for themselves if they want to do anything about this opportunity that I'm seeing. The window's closing faster than I thought it would, but there's still time.
Don't buy from a recently-opened coin shop. I checked a fairly new one out once and not only were the owners Arabs but they insisted I submit to fingerprints. In the US no less.
Yeah, think of all the online dealers. Do THEY "fingerprint" you? I dunno what those Arabs were up to, but I don't do business with people with hyphenated names in general.
16466269? ago
...pushing $16/oz now, only the end of January...
16364393? ago
Here we go...dollar finally starting to plunge; spot gold at $1299 looking to close above $1300 resistance while silver is up again to 15.66/oz on the spot market.
Much more dollar weakness at all, and we'll be headed toward $1365 gold soon.
Folks, As I said the day after Christmas, LOAD THE WAGON!
16140889? ago
...Once gold hits $1300, silver takes off again, I think. Silver's seeing a lot of resistance that used to be support a couple of years ago, so it needs to be "pulled" up by gold, which has the far larger market cap. When spot silver closes above $15.70, look out above. Both gold and silver seem to somehow give me the impression of a helium balloon hitting and bouncing off the ceiling. Sky's the limit, and so is the floor, so I just think it's a GREAT risk/reward thing going especially in the longer term like a couple of years or so....
15955364? ago
...btw the "last straw" causing me to post this was the gold/silver ratio breaking down. That's what told me a rally was beginning. Silver gets pushed around by gold, and generally falls faster than gold in a bear market, and rising more quickly in a bull market. It's the more "volatile" of the two, being the MUCH smaller market. I'm just playing the historical trends, but had no idea the reaction would be so sudden as well as so strong. Silver rallied about $1.50 in less than a month, and was up about 10% in the last 30 days. Not a bad ROI for a month, I'd say!
15955343? ago
How do you "downvoters" feel NOW, eh? Silver's been up up up since I posted this...
15917399? ago
....and silver has been stupid straight-up since I posted this. smh
15888401? ago
....looks like a 50% fib RT will take it back down to about $14.60-$14.65 or so, should that happen, as a retracement off the 200 DMA, but as always, we have to let the market tell us what it wants to do. I'm just seeing a nice window of opportunity closing now, in absence of a nice Fibonacci retracement that hasn't (yet) come. I'm assuming it will, but the old saying is that the markets can stay irrational longer than an investor can stay solvent. That's why I like the physical metal thing...it's not some time-dependent, leveraged contract like the futures markets are and, thus, a lot less financial pressure on you during short-term price swings.
15888179? ago
Don't buy paper silver. Buy the real metal itself.
15888330? ago
Yup. Stay FAAAAAAR away from the SLV ETF. I bought 500 oz of just the metal with the lowest premium and commisions I could find. Sometimes it's 90% junk silver; sometimes it's 100 oz o 1000 oz bars, but ideally I'd have both....the bigger bars for taking profits off of and the junk silver to keep around for possible SHTF "barter" situations. That's the beauty of physical gold or silver is that EVERYONE knows that it has intrinsic value, unlike the cryptos. "Math" has no intrinsic value....knowing how to USE math does, but it's not something you can put a number on. Yet, the crypto market attempts to do just that, and it's the volatility that frightens me there.
15886712? ago
This submission was linked from this v/Silver submission by @Beldar.
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15885316? ago
Looks like Silver wants to break out...the high is $15.60 today, and if can close above about $15.56 or so, looks like the 200 DMA will be in the rear-view.
15827526? ago
aaaHAAaaaa I see why silver doesn't wanna go above $15.39 now.
On 6 Nov 2014, looking at a 5-yr silver chart, silver's local low was $15.39. Support becomes resistance on the way back up sometimes, and on the way down in that leg, silver had a 17-cent range where it bounced off prices from $15.39-$15.56 several times before breaking out to the downside at that point. Silver's had a nice, quick run-up so far but we'll see what gold does. If it continues to rally, silver might still hesitate for a short time before following, but follow it always does, and would whip-saw up FAST when it does.
For those of you interested and are risk-averse but don't still want some sort of leverage, this would be where you look at options, subject to pricing. I'd bet off the top of my head that gold/silver options are rather expensive right now, but might be worth looking into. ALWAYS seek the help of a pro when doing this if you're not 100% certain of all the factors involved.
15802117? ago
Silver is up 4% in the last 3 days, which is quite a nice run in a short time. Looks to be running out of steam a bit, but part of that is getting close to the 200 DMA. We'll see, but I still think it'll bounce back down from the 200 DMA, gather, then blast through. It's a normal phase of trading where the "weak longs/specs" get out at certain places, and just before resistance is usually where it is. Then they jump back in once the resistance is cleared.
As Q says, "Future proves past." We'll see how it goes.
15796285? ago
https://investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/silver-price-forecast-2019/
Silver could rise to $26/oz in 2019
15786279? ago
"DIVERGENCE" - the one word that signals market upheaval:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-27/something-wrong-deutsche-bank-spots-odd-market-divergence
15786354? ago
Since bonds are historically one path of the "flight to safety," and the bond markets are actually showing divergence, it tells me that SOME demand for bonds won't be there and it'll shift to OTHER "safe havens" like....the metals.
The metals...gold & silver and to a lesser extent, platinum and palladium are where scared investors generally go...there, or just to cash...Since palladium is used in catalytic converters, it has industrial uses and has actually recently hit all-time highs so that's out. Platinum is far less of a liquid market than gold & silver, so that's out. That leaves gold & silver. Silver's price has been outperforming that of gold lately, for reasons I've already covered, so it would seem to be the one to pick.
15771604? ago
https://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
....if you scroll down to look at the 5-year chart, you'll see a "double bottom" at around that $13.50 level. It's the 3rd chart from the top, just off the bottom of the screen as you look at the page.
Historically, the longer the time period over which support has held, the stronger the support it is. When it's been tested TWICE at the same point and held, that support is even stronger. I'm thinking that the price will go up to a fibonacci level, calculated between 13.50 and the highs of ~ $20 (see how "round numbers" like to be support/resistance? That's a function of Human Psychology)? You take that $6.50 (the trading range) and multiply it by several fibonacci numbers to get potential shorter-term price targets, where the price, if rallying, will likely bounce off in the short-term due TO profit-taking, those will be the levels to look for the rally fading, consolidating, before heading yet higher.
I've seen in bullish markets, that the 62% level is often "resistance" in a rally. Doing the math, 6.50 x .618 (the actual fib number there) then adding it to the $13.50 level (the bottom of the range where the calculation is), you get a price target of about $17.52. $17.50 seems like another "natural" spot for Human Psychology to feel could be a barrier, so I'm looking for silver to rally to about $17.50 if it can clear the 200 DMA at around $15.48.
If you're a futures trader, as of right now, I'd say buy on a close above the 200 DMA and sell at $17.45.
Let's see how this works out (or not) in the future with the prices, and if I'm right or not. But my point is I see silver and gold rallying quite a bit in the very near-term.
15771638? ago
correction for precision: $20.60-ish was the actual high, so move that price target with the .618 fib level to $17.88. I'd probably be a seller at $17.74 if I had a futures contract deep in the money right there.
15771456? ago
Also, even if silver doesn't close above $15/oz today (likely due to profit-taking on the part of the short-term traders' speculation), I'd say a 2% gain or so in a day is QUITE the nice price rise. Here's a chart for those of you who haven't been following things. It's a 1-year chart, and CLEARLY shows the current rises in price are hardly...."spikes" or "highs."
https://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
15771417? ago
One thing I want to emphasize is that I'm not a "pro" at this currently, but have been in the past. Please just consider me "more knowledgeable than most," but certainly not ALL. Talk to an investment person you TRUST about it before making a decision.
I'm simply sharing my own observations and my current "feeling" about it, and historically, I'm usually more right than wrong when I see certain things.
If you're looking to make that ~ 40 cents between the current price and the 200 DMA, leveraged into thousands of dollars if correct, then you buy a long futures contract.
If you're looking to "buy and hold" so you're NOT leveraged to feel heat on minor price drops, and are thinking silver (or gold, really, for silver gets pushed around BY gold) will continue to rise in general in 2019, that's when you buy physical metals.
It's been trading between $14-$20/oz for the past 9 or so years, with brief hiccups below but a floor at $13.53 (I call it $13.50). It recently has been under attack, which you'll see if you look at a longer-term chart of say a couple of years or more, so what I did was literally "buy the dip," but that "dip" was what lasted the past 2 months and prices have now returned to the LOWER end of the trading range.
I'm of the mind it has a "Trump put" beneath it, holding prices above that $13.50 level because of all the infighting between Trump and the Federal Reserve. IF we go back to a gold-backed currency, even buying the unleveraged metals via physical delivery to literally "hold," again, do your own research into the higher end of price estimates. I've heard on silver anywhere between $80 and $200 per ounce, should that happen. Your ultimate price target is something only you can decide upon, but I think it's (relatively) safe to think that entering the market at $15/oz or so, you'll be exposed to about the $1.50/oz to the downside (to that $13.50 level) but the UPSIDE? I LOVE the potential risk/reward on this one.
15771037? ago
Yup, even today...it was above $15/oz, dropped to test it, bounced higher, traded higher, has re-tested the $15 mark again today, then bounced higher again. Of particular note is on the second bounce, the low was a higher low than just the previous bounce a few hours before. I'm seeing the silver market SCREAMING that it wants to rally in a big way. It's free advice, so take it for what you paid for it, but PLEASE, folks...if you're looking at the metals, better look fast...
15771159? ago
It was over $16 a few months ago when I checked. Question is will it match gold's value after the crash.
15771583? ago
No. It will never match gold due to aupply a d demand. HUGELY greater supply of silver than gold.
15783792? ago
Today, silver up 1.38%; gold up 0.44%
15771205? ago
I take it you mean "will it rise as much as gold will?" since gold is like literally 100 times silver's price. The answer to that would be to look at the gold/silver ratio. I realize THIS time, you might/might not throw thousands of years of price history out the window, but also realize that gold's market cap is FAR superior to that of silver, thus, silver gets dragged around with the price action of its big brother. That said, the gold/silver ratio is high right now, historically, and I THINK (emphasis b/c it's my OPINION only) silver will rise faster than gold percentage-wise. Look at several days' worth of trading to get a feel for it. Gold is up today 0.14% and silver is up today 2.19%. Do the math.
15773022? ago
Oh I already have it. I have also heard your argument. But only the wind knows.
15778160? ago
That is ultimately true.
15770974? ago
200 day MA is around $15.48-ish, so that's the next test, assuming it closes above $15/oz today, which it looks as if it will...has been bouncing off $15/oz to the upside so it looks like it doesn't wanna close below $15, but we'll know in a few hours. Even if not, that 200 DMA is the more important resistance. Watch that price action if you're a gold/silver bug (I'm not in general, but am currently), it does look as if it wants to make a run upward. It's bounced off of about $13.50-ish (I think the low of the past 9 or so years is 13.53) a couple of times, and more recently, we've seen higher highs and higher lows, especially in the last couple of months. While I'm no "CFP," I used to TRADE gold and silver (and soybeans but...who buys soybeans in a "flight to safety?" lol) on the exchanges, and I'm well-versed in technical analysis. The technicals are either all positive or turning that way. The fundamentals have a "put" under the price, I'm assuming at that $13.50 level, for various reasons but one huge one is the fact it costs more to get the stuff outta the ground than current prices, so production is relatively low and supportive of prices on the supply side.
Lastly, hard assets are popular in a fading economic cycle. I think Trump's "rumors" AHEM of a war with the Fed will send prices much higher down the road, but that part's conjecture, of course. I just wanted to share the info, since I'd been waiting for not just a good PRICE for entrance, but a better chart structure/technicals to go more positive before I made my own purchases...five 100-oz bars...so I put my money where my mouth is already. I got in at $14.24/oz, once the market had recently been testing the lows and bounced off yet again.
If you've been thinking about it, NOW IS THE TIME to take a SERIOUS long look at the metals. I chose silver because of several reasons, but long story short THERE is the gold/silver ratio is historically high and that generally means the ratio will start shrinking again, meaning silver prices rise faster than gold prices.
This is my own PSA to the anons. I know many are more into cryptos, and while I'm sure the potential for profit is higher there, it is FAR too volatile for my tastes, but if you're into it....I do know those are pretty low too, so maybe pick a few of your own faves, research those, and hop in for the ride.
15770956? ago
I think it best to buy dips and lows, not highs and spikes.
15802191? ago
Seriously, if you look at a chart with a time horizon of a couple of years or more, you'll see quite easily that we're certainly in no "high or spike" right now, rather, simply coming OUT of a dip. With all the Trump/Fed bickering, the Fed tried to drive prices down past support levels, but were not successful. Tells me there's a "Trump Put" or a "Fed Put" under silver at around the $13.50 level I had previously mentioned. It's ALL in the risk/reward.
15771318? ago
‘Resistance’ is just waiting to be broken through.
15771292? ago
In other words, buy weakness, sell strength.
15771074? ago
It's not a high, it's simply relatively high over the past couple of months. It's still below the 200 day moving average, so it's no "high" or "spike." Over the last two months, perhaps you can call it that, but when you buy physical metals, your time horizon is generally longer than just a couple of months. It's showing strength, which is when you buy with some confidence.
15770828? ago
Where to get?
15771148? ago
any number of online places. I've had great rapport with the people at https://the-moneychanger.com/ and https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver -- but it's all up to you. The main thing to look for, other than a good, honest history with their customers of course, is the premium you have to pay over spot prices. Generally speaking, it depends on the size of the order, but it'll tell you in that second link exactly what the premium is on various lot sizes. I'm just looking for whatever the lowest premium is because I'm looking just for silver content. Mostly the bars or the rounds & especially the 90% junk silver coins have lower premiums than coins do.
15785108? ago
Thanks so much for the info!!!
15786142? ago
You're welcome. PLEASE realize I'm no REAL "expert" on this, just an old trader who has seemed to have a decent feel for the metals markets over the years. No, I'm not always right (dang would I be rich lol), but I'm generally pretty good at timing. It's up another 23 cents today, or 1.5% while gold is up 0.69%. Silver outperformed gold yesterday, too, and it (IMHO) goes BACK to that gold/silver ratio being high, in terms of historical pricing. One poster said they lie gold bc it's The Metal, and gold has a lot more value and less mined than silver....all of which are true. However, as contrarian as it might seem, silver has the higher potential for profit as the price action the past two days that I just mentioned illustrates.
If I were looking at silver, I'm not sure if I'd buy here or if I'd wait to see how the price action reacts when it encounters the 200 DMA which is, again, at about $15.48 or within a few pennies of that figure. I'm betting it'll bounce off (profit-taking), gather itself, then explode upward through it, not to look back for quite a while. The key thing, however, is to remember that when you buy physical metal, you're looking at a longer-haul type of trade as opposed to the shorter-term...that's what the futures market is for.
I hope all this stuff helps someone, and so far so good in my call, but its only been a couple of days. We'll see how things pan out. I'd always recommend talking to a CFP or other pro about it, someone who has no direct financial interest in you when you ask. Some will talk it up just trying to get a commission, but if you get 'em talking well, you can usually tell after a minute or two if they're a straight shooter or just trying to "ring up a sale."
15787056? ago
I truly, truly appreciate the write up!!! Will be checking out some options after work later. Thanks again!
15787965? ago
Oh, you're quite welcome! I'm just trying to do my part to carry my weight in all of this, and if it means blabbing the dry details of what I've been seeing and thinking about, and sharing the info with my fellow patriots I'm glad to do it. I just noticed I'm $6 away from "break even" on my lower-priced purchase and $36 away from it on the second one, which I've not even received in the mail yet, but it would be so cool if it's pricier to sell back to where I got it from, including commissions factored in, the moment I take the shipment in. But I'll be fine so long as the price hikes above say $16/oz and does its gyrations but leaving me with profit no matter what it wants to do on a given day price-wise. The reason for me going into so much detail was to help others have the info in one spot, and let them decide for themselves if they want to do anything about this opportunity that I'm seeing. The window's closing faster than I thought it would, but there's still time.
15771115? ago
I was turned onto Scottsdale Mint a while back. Direct from a manufacturer.
15771223? ago
whoever you're comfortable with is best, IMO
15770907? ago
LCS (local coin shop) or online. Just make sure wherever you get it, it's reputable. Two good online sources are Provident Metals and JM Bullion.
15771238? ago
Don't buy from a recently-opened coin shop. I checked a fairly new one out once and not only were the owners Arabs but they insisted I submit to fingerprints. In the US no less.
15802217? ago
Yeah, think of all the online dealers. Do THEY "fingerprint" you? I dunno what those Arabs were up to, but I don't do business with people with hyphenated names in general.
15772491? ago
Fingerprints? Fuck that shit!