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awaymay45 ago

3.) Sealed Indictments now approaching 70,000 - When you consider 800-1,200 is the annual average, this is a KEY indicator.

This is completely inaccurate. The 70k number is not the amount of sealed indictments, it is the amount of EVERY sealed document in the court system (search warrants, juvenile records, petty offenses... everything). This is not even debated, as at the bottom of the chart in small letters, it says that the numbers represent 'proceedings'. They titled it 'sealed indictments' for clickbait, and to mislead people... it worked.

In addition to that, there is no proof that 70k sealed 'proceedings' is unusual. It only looks unusual because they are falsely comparing it to a study from 12 years ago, that examined an entirely different category of data.

For example, the '800-1200 SIs per year is normal' line was NOT the amount of SI's filed. That was the amount of a certain category of data from 2006, that included SIs within it. Furthermore that amount (1077) was only the amount STILL REMAINING SEALED 2 YEARS AFTER BEING FILED. The amount that was filed in 2006 could have been 100k for all we know.

When compared to recent history (2016), the 70k amount is normal.

In other words, the claim is completely bogus. This article explains it in detail:

https://wmerthon6.wixsite.com/website-1/home/comprehensive-analysis-of-the-50k-sealed-indictment-claim

4.) Mass Resignations - Since POTUS took office executive resignations (and other) have spiked (mostly by those in their prime) to nearly 6,000, resulting in unprecedented turnover.

The mass resignation thing really isn't noteworthy. It's not 'wrong' per se, but there is absolutely no evidence that shows the current tracked number (6k) is unusual.

There is no historical data to compare that number to, and the person that maintains the database even says the number is meaningless as a comparison. We could be experiencing LESS resignations this year, compared to others, for all we know.

The only data available is this report that examines US CEO resignations. There is less than a 4% difference over 2014, this year.

http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2018-october-ceo-report-2018-ceo-changes-surpass-year-end-2017-total

So it really shouldn't be used as evidence of anything. Anyone that researches it will find what I just discussed, and know that it is a meaningless statistic.

Red-Pill-NOW ago

I get your argument, especially regarding the mass resignation stat unavailability, but the 70k sealed indictment count on pacer.gov is a stretch for me. I have followed it from the 15k mark and you'll have a hard time convincing me that since Huber/Horowitz that rise from around 1k to 70k is a normal swing of "all sealed court documents" within any given period. (Can you imagine a nationwide count in 2006 of only 1077 TOTAL sealed docs?) Id be willing to say there are at least 70k sealed juvi docs alone! Also any contention someone set up a fake 'pacer.gov' In which to red herring us with a sad scheme is also dubious. Your response seems to make allowance for both theories being in effect simultaneously, but they really couldn't be as they would counter one another. It just doesn't add up.

awaymay45 ago

I wrote the first article I linked. I did extensive research on this using PACER, and by talking to the team that makes the chart. I sourced all the data in the article, so you can verify... I also included the discussions I had with the team that makes the chart. Their claim is provably false.

I have followed it from the 15k mark and you'll have a hard time convincing me that since Huber/Horowitz that rise from around 1k to 70k is a normal swing of "all sealed court documents" within any given period.

But what are you basing the assumption that 70k sealed documents in a year is unusual, on? Their comparison to the 1077 number? That is a blatantly false comparison. That was NOT the amount of sealed proceedings filed in 2006.

There is NO data available anywhere that says what a normal amount of sealed proceedings filed in a year should be. With that being the case, we are essentially dealing with a situation like the mass resignations: how can anyone say 70k is more or less than normal, with no real data to compare it to?

The best we can do is run the exact PACER searches on recent history (2016), and see how the numbers compare. On the districts where that has been accomplished -- including the most active ones, like CA and DC -- the evidence shows that this year's amounts are normal. (Included in the article.)

(Can you imagine a nationwide count in 2006 of only 1077 TOTAL sealed docs?)

Not entirely sure what point you are making here. 1077 was a specific case type (cr). The study reported 24,375 sealed proceedings in total. This was not 'every' sealed proceeding, like the 2018 team is counting, but it was the largest categories.

(And again, 24,375 was not the amount filed, it was the amount still sealed 2+ years after being filed.)

within any given sealed indictment you could have warrants for objects etc.

Just for clarification, a search warrant is not an indictment. It may be involved with a case where an indictment exists, but the search warrant itself is not part of the indictment.

Also any contention someone set up a fake 'pacer.gov' In which to red herring us with a sad scheme is also dubious. Your response seems to make allowance for both theories being in effect simultaneously, but they really couldn't be as they would counter one another. It just doesn't add up.

Not entirely sure of your point here. Are you saying that I am implying that the PACER data was faked? I'm not. I'm saying that the numbers themselves are legitimate, but they have been deceptively misrepresented through false comparisons and misleading terminology.

Here's another article I wrote that reveals the exact person that started the 60k chart. She didn't understand how to read the PACER search results, and started incorrectly calling EVERY document an indictment. It starts when she was reporting only 12. Her posts went viral, which caused others to join in, and they formed the team that makes the chart.

At some point they learned of their mistakes about the data, but they didn't correct them... they kept falsely reporting it. Legal experts correctly pointed out their mistakes at the very beginning, when there were only 33 being reported, but everyone in the Q community ignored it.

https://wmerthon6.wixsite.com/website-1/home/who-started-the-60k-sealed-indictment-claim

Read that and you will get a very good idea of the shenanigans that have been going on. It's a mixture of ignorance and willful deceit. Most of the people on the research team are simply ignorant of the data.

The issue is that it went unchecked for so long that it became a 'fact'. Everyone read the '1077 is normal' line, and because no one understood the details (and make no mistake, it is confusing to understand... it took me a long time to get it all straight), it simply became a 'fact'. It's not a fact. It is irrefutably false, using objective, publicly verifiable data.

Red-Pill-NOW ago

Don't get me wrong, I sense you are coming from a good place and have also done a lot of homework on this and I truly respect that. What continues to bother me is that we are looking at a spike in this 'sealed ____' Docs or indictments. IF we conclude the spike is organic to actual court processes and not fraud, then we still must account for the spike. In a country of 325 million people I find 70k to be a reasonable number for ALL (temporary) sealed court docs, yet we have witnessed a steady rise from far less than 10k. So my point is when we account for the spike, we must also in tandem qualify what variable driving it. If the spike is attributed to a rise in juvi record sealing, for example, then we must be able to show a bevy of non-criminal sealed juvi docs caused the spike.

For example, this spike did happen since Huber/Horowitz were impaneled with supposedly a team of 460 attorneys. Someone who believes these sealed docs are criminal indictments would now be able to correlate and reconcile the two. This represents a validation of said spike. If you acknowledge a 60+k spike occurred, then I need to know what precipitated it from your perspective. Either you need to account for why it was initially well under 10k before the spike, or for the spike itself.

IF in your argument you are saying (incompetent or fraudulent) anons have gradually, over the past year, bunched in groups of (all sealed cases) to (fraudulently) reflect a steady increase, (spike) then that's what I need to convince me with proof beyond innuendo. They either used real information (erroneously) or they are completely making up the increases that represent the spike.

My original response was along these same lines, if an appx 65k spike occurred, it must be accounted for. BTW I understand warrants are not indictments. But I think Im hearing you say the spike isnt indictments specific but all sealed docs. So if that's the case, why still the spike?

awaymay45 ago

First of all, I want to thank you for a civil and intelligent discussion about this. Many people refuse to listen, and just yell shill over and over. Your approach shows that you are indeed interested in the truth, and aren't just saying that to say it, like many people do.

I find 70k to be a reasonable number for ALL (temporary) sealed court docs, yet we have witnessed a steady rise from far less than 10k.

This all hinges on where your starting point is. You say we have seen a steady rise from 'less than 10k', but I'm not sure where you are getting that number from. Is your starting point the 2006 data?

If so, the 2006 study found 24k sealed proceedings. That was not the amount filed, it was only the amount still sealed after 2+ years. Add in everything that became unsealed within 2 years, and that would be the true total.

Then you have to take into account the fact that it was 12 years ago. If you read in my first article, about mid-way through, there is a 15 district analysis that went back 10 years. It showed a steady increase in cases over time.

So the true comparison is 24k + all cases unsealed before 2 years + inflation of 12 years.

It's not possible for us to know this information, so it's not possible to definitively state if this year is unusual compared to 2006.

In addition to that point, I'm also saying lets just throw out all the stuff from 2006, and analyze recent history in PACER, using their exact search settings. That would yield a FAR more accurate comparison.

When I did this, I found no evidence that this year is experiencing unusual amounts of sealed cases. The amounts filed in 2016, in places like CA and DC, were essentially the same amount that we are seeing filed this year.

The conclusion is that we are not seeing a spike in sealed cases this year. It only 'appears' that there is a spike, because we are comparing the numbers to incomplete data from 2006.

Red-Pill-NOW ago

I get what you are saying. I had been watching Pacer.gov and thought I was witnessing a steady rise (of over 60k) to just shy of 70k. Hence my 'spike' verbiage. Now I don't know what I've witnessed. lol