I like thought experiments, and that's all this is. Let's keep discussion civil.
I'm going to postulate first what I believe. I believe that the NSA, while it does spy on everyone, actually uses the spying in order to help out our financial interests more than anything else. The United States controls the banking industry, and more importantly, we control the currency (US dollars). Everyone exchanges on the US dollar.... or did. Our government is deeply tied with banking interests, which is why they are considered too big to fail and too big to jail, even when demonstrably shown to be in a criminal conspiracy to steal billions of dollars. It's important for the wealthy here in America that the banking and Wall Street stay under complete control, as that is a good chunk of where our entire GDP comes from (I wasn't sure which figure was the most reliable on that one, admittedly. I found several articles postulating that it was between 40-60%, some even going as high as 90% which even going with 40 as the low is an extremely large portion). With the introduction of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), we're going to see something new. A banking industry that has a good chunk of the world trading, banking, and aligning with will make dramatic changes to the US. ISIS is now switching to their own currency system as they systematically move and spread across the Middle East. Greece is stating they are going to be unable to pay back the IMF, and this will likely harm the entire banking sector in all of Europe.
To me, there's a pattern emerging there. Our US controlled global banks are no longer going to be what's used in Asian countries thanks to China, they're not going to be used in the Middle East thanks to ISIS, and we've already implemented so many sanctions against Russia that they're not really going to use us. Sure, that leaves Africa, although I'd hardly call most African countries strong US allies/supporters, I suspect that many will go with China's AIIB in the near future. That leaves Europe, with a host of their own problems and the Euro in serious trouble right now.
This, to me, has seemed to all occur in an extremely short time-frame. While I don't know if there was a conspiracy there to unseat the American hegemony throne, I suspect the collapse of the American dollar is truly on the horizon. Americans in general are extremely disillusioned with America, we feel the policies don't represent the people, that the politicians are controlled by short-sighted lobbyists intent on furthering their own ends at the expense of us, and we don't even believe we're the good guys any more. We don't support our military as much, we feel like we're living in a police state, and many of us feel like unless you were born with a silver spoon already in your mouth--there's no hope for getting to the top yourself. The American dream has truly ended and we've reverted back to a class system.
I can see these patterns emerging, but I can't even begin to guess what's next. The American people are too fat and lazy to start a revolution, and because of that they're also going to be too fat and lazy to adequately support America from an external threat that is on the horizon. I really, really suspect that the end of America is coming within the next 20 years, more likely to end in the next 5-10.
Now that I've given what I believe, now onwards to the thought experiment itself. What will happen when America's gone?
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boazdm ago
Honestly, I think we'll be just fine.
America isn't going anywhere. It might not be as dominant in the world as it used to be, but so what?
The US military is still the strongest in the world. Really - nobody comes close. US security against foreign armies will be unaffected.
The US economy is still the strongest in the world. Maybe it won't be forever, but again - so what? Being the second (or seventh) largest economy in the world is still very good.
There will be massive changes in the US political system. It might take a revolution or mass civil unrest, but change will come. But in the end, there will still be a US government that works for the people. At least at the beginning.
The US will stop projecting its power globally as much as they used to. There will still be major US bases around the world (Poland, Kuwait, etc.), but expect a significant draw back. Both good and bad come with this one. Bad: the bad parts of the world will get worse. Rwanda, Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syrua, etc. Without US troops to slow them down, ISIS and Al-Qaeda will spread faster and grow stronger. Good: new global players will step up to the plate. Expect India, China, Brazil, Australia, and a few others to do more in the way of foreign intervention in conflicts such as Darfur.
There will be a big flare-up in the Middle East. Various factions that were playing nice to placate the Americans might stop doing so. The Saudis and Turks will probably do some (more) ethnic cleansing. There will most likely be another big confrontation between Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah, but it will end just like all the others have in the past.
Iran will get nukes. Followed by Saudi Arabia. Probably followed by Egypt and Venezuela. Hopefully by then, Israel's Iron Dome and Iron Beam technologies have matured to take down nukes and have been shared with the rest of the world - hopefully rendering all missile technology obsolete.
So in conclusion... Either we'll be fine, or we'll blow ourselves up.